Multi-hazard risk assessment and resilience of infrastructure in a changing climate

地震、洪水和龙卷风等自然灾害影响着包括加拿大在内的世界各地，使人们和已建成的基础设施容易受到自然力量的影响。1900-2013年期间，安大略省已经发生了160起重大事件，这表明已建成的基础设施在其生命周期内每年至少会发生一次重大事件。加拿大保险局估计，2009年至2017年期间，与气候变化和极端天气事件有关的平均损失为18亿加元。最重要的是，加拿大的基础设施已经老化（超过40年），这增加了它们对未来事件（与老化相关的故障）的脆弱性。因此，自然灾害和气候变化的城市风险增加，如果加拿大的基础设施不能建立对自然灾害的抵御能力，可能导致巨大的经济损失。在短期内，拟议的研究计划的结构，使多灾害风险评估和弹性量化的桥梁，为当前和预测的气候条件。重点领域一将为风险评估开发多灾害时间依赖脆弱性模型。重点领域二将提出组成部分一级复原力量化模型。重点领域三将把以前的框架从组件一级的风险和复原力扩展到系统和网络一级的风险和复原力，并将提出基于顺应性的桥梁设计方法。从长远来看，所制定的方法将成为对相互依存/相互关联的基础设施进行系统风险评估的基础，以提高加拿大社区面对气候变化的复原力。拟议的研究计划将激励和提供高素质人才（HQP）的专业培训，以满足全球对未来土木工程基础设施的可靠风险评估，弹性量化和决策的需求。总体而言，气候变化对极端天气事件的发生产生了深远的影响，对加拿大的基础设施建设产生了明显的影响。因此，拟议的研究计划旨在为土木工程基础设施的多灾害风险和弹性提供强大的工具。这些成果将帮助加拿大的行业和各级政府在面对气候变化时加强对极端事件的准备、应对和恢复能力。

Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, and tornadoes impact every part of the world including Canada leaving people and built infrastructure vulnerable to natural forces.160 major events have already occurred in the province of Ontario in the period of 1900-2013, suggesting that the built infrastructure will be subjected to at least one major event per year during its lifetime. The Insurance Bureau of Canada estimates an average loss of $1.8 billion between 2009 and 2017 related to climate change and extreme weather events. On the top of that, Canada's infrastructure has aged (more than 40 years old) that increases their vulnerability to future events (aging-associated failures). Therefore, there is an increase of the urban risk from natural disasters and climate change, which can lead to huge economic losses if Canadian infrastructures fail to build their resilience to natural disasters. In the short-term, the proposed research program is structured to enable multi-hazard risk assessment and resilience quantification of bridges for current and projected climate conditions. Focus Area I will develop multi-hazard time-dependent fragility models for risk assessment. Focus Area II will propose models for component-level resilience quantification. Focus Area III will expand the previous frameworks from component- to system- and network-level risk and resilience, and will propose resilient-based approaches for the design of bridges. In the long-term, the developed methodologies will form the basis for the systematic risk assessment of interdependent/interconnected infrastructure, towards the resilience of Canadian communities in the face of climate change. The proposed research program will inspire and provide specialized training of highly qualified personnel (HQP) that is tailored to meet the global needs for reliable risk assessment, resilience quantification, and decision making of the future civil engineering infrastructure. Overall, climate change has a profound impact in the occurrence of extreme weather events, with clear implications for Canada's built infrastructure. Thus, the proposed research program aims to provide robust tools for multi-hazard risk and resilience of civil engineering infrastructure. These outcomes will help industries and different levels of government in Canada to enhance their preparedness for, response to, and resilience under, extreme events in the face of climate change.