Modeling the Impact of Emerging Mobility Services Using Big Data Analytics

交通运输市场正在经历一场范式转变，以应对新的移动趋势和技术。今天的市场受益于范围更广、更灵活、按需和响应迅速的新兴移动服务，从微型移动(例如滑板车)到叫车(例如UberX)和按需交通服务。这些服务承诺为社会带来可观的经济、环境和社会效益。另一方面，如果没有适当地引入，新兴的移动服务可能会导致更多的出行需求，从公共交通转向，并可能导致城市扩张，从而导致用户之间不可持续的出行做法。还有一个问题是，新兴流动服务对不同人口群体的收益和成本是否公平分配。因此，迫切需要对这些新兴移动服务的影响进行建模，以便为交通规划者和移动提供商提供更知情的决策过程，以利用其潜在的好处。该研究计划的长期愿景是提高我们对新兴移动服务进行建模并分析其多方面影响的能力，以便在满足我们城市的可持续发展目标的同时，主动规划它们的引入、管理和运营。为了帮助实现这一愿景的短期目标，该研究计划将：(1)开发一个多模式数据库来收集、存储、融合和处理来自不同新兴移动服务的数据；(2)开发模型来估计和预测新兴移动服务的需求；以及(3)开发一个统一的框架来评估新兴移动服务的公平表现。这项创新研究将开发一个通用的数据驱动的需求预测建模框架，以适应许多新兴的移动服务及其不断演变的功能。因此，这项研究将利用多模式数据收集和集成、数据挖掘和融合算法、可视化、大数据分析、机器学习和高级计量经济学建模。进一步的创新将来自一个新的统一的股权分析框架，该框架能够充分调整新兴移动服务的服务提供过程的复杂性，确保加拿大各行各业对这些服务的最佳和公平使用。尽管新兴移动服务迅速涌入加拿大城市，但与美国和欧洲相比，缺乏对这些服务的影响进行建模的研究。拟议中的计划将提高加拿大的国际地位，使HQP能够获得高需求的技能，并了解新兴移动服务对加拿大交通系统和整个社会的更广泛影响。此外，开发的模型将为政策制定提供见解，使交通规划者和决策者能够将这些模型应用于基于证据的政策实施。

The transportation market is undergoing a paradigm shift in response to new mobility trends and technologies. Today's market benefits from more wide-ranging and flexible, on-demand, and responsive emerging mobility services, varying from micro-mobility (e.g., scooter) to ride-hailing (e.g., UberX) and on-demand transit services. These services promise to bring substantial economic, environmental, and social benefits to society. On the other hand, if not properly introduced, emerging mobility services might induce more demand for travel, a shift away from public transit, and possibly urban sprawl, thereby leading to unsustainable travel practices among their users. There is also a question of whether the benefits and costs of emerging mobility services on various population groups are distributed equitably. There is thus a pressing need to model the impacts of these emerging mobility services to provide transportation planners and mobility providers with a more informed decision-making process to capitalize on their potential benefits. The long-term vision of the research program is to advance our ability to model emerging mobility services and analyze their multifaceted impacts to proactively plan their introduction, management, and operation while meeting the sustainability goals of our cities. To help achieve the short-term objectives of this vision, this research program will: (1) Develop a multimodal database to collect, store, fuse, and process data from different emerging mobility services; (2) Develop models to estimate and predict the demand for emerging mobility services, and (3) Develop a unified framework to assess the equity performance of emerging mobility services. This innovative research will develop a generic data-driven demand prediction modeling framework that accommodates many emerging mobility services and their continuously evolving features. This research will thus capitalize on multimodal data collection and integration, data mining and fusion algorithms, visualization, big data analytics, machine learning, and advanced econometric modeling. Further innovation will result from a new unified equity analysis framework that can adequately adjust to the complexity of the service provision processes of emerging mobility services, ensuring optimal and equitable use of these services by Canadians from all walks of life. Despite the rapid influx of emerging mobility services in Canadian cities, research is lacking in modeling the impacts of these services compared to the USA and Europe. The proposed program will enhance Canada's international standing and allow HQP to gain high-demand skills and understand the broader implications of emerging mobility services on the Canadian transportation systems and society at large. Moreover, the developed models will provide insights into policy development, allowing transportation planners and decision-makers to apply these models for evidence-based policy implementation.