City Digital Twin Hybrid Simulation for Systemic Risk Assessment and Resilience Quantification: Application to Future Flood Projections in Canada

世界经济论坛2020年版的《全球风险报告》继续将气候变化减缓失败、极端天气事件和自然灾害综合起来的可能性和影响列为最大风险。在这方面，考虑到2019年加拿大气候变化报告，加拿大处于特别脆弱的地位，该报告强调了加拿大的变暖速度是全球平均水平的两倍-加剧了未来极端天气的频率和程度。迫切需要创新的工具来指导加拿大城市的实际气候适应战略，特别是考虑到加拿大市政当局联合会2020年的分析--估计用于地方(城市一级)气候变化适应措施的年均支出为53亿加元。未来五年研究计划的重点是这样一个事实，即城市洪水是加拿大代价最高的自然灾害，关键基础设施网络(CIN)的持续运行(例如，电力、雨水管理和交通)是城市在气候压力下恢复能力的关键。因此，建议的研究重点领域旨在解决与真实城市CINS有关的三个关键技术挑战：i)复杂的相互依赖的动态模拟；ii)考虑不同不确定性来源的未来洪水预测下的级联故障预测；iii)在洪水情景时间历史之前和整个过程中优化的复原力管理策略。具体地说，重点领域I将致力于将不同的城市CIN功能及其相互依赖融合到一个临时的网络网络架构中，该架构通过一个新的互操作性模块实现--使基于物理的CIN和洪水模拟器能够交互，从而模拟真实城市中CIN的相互依赖。采用基于概率性能的设计和金融网络级联风险评估方法，重点领域II的研究将率先开发城市压力测试协议，以预测未来气候预测下包含不同不确定性来源的CIN洪水引发的级联故障。最后，重点领域III将致力于利用复杂的自适应网络和进化计算技术优化城市复原力管理战略，并开发交互式数据和4D(3D+时间)可视化界面，以向利益攸关方调动所产生的研究知识。该研究计划的总体目标是创建更复杂的数字孪生互操作性分析工具，该工具可以考虑不同城市的社会、经济、生态和物理维度，以及多种危险环境中的其他形式的危险及其相互依赖，以减轻城市的系统性风险，并确保加拿大对未来几代人不断变化的气候具有弹性。

The 2020 edition of the Global Risk Report by the World Economic Forum continued to identify Failure of climate-change mitigation Extreme weather events; and Natural disasters as the topmost risks in terms of their combined likelihood and impact. In this respect, Canada is in a particularly vulnerable position considering the 2019 Canada's Changing Climate report which highlighted how Canada's warming rate has been double the magnitude of the global average-intensifying the frequency and magnitude of future weather extremes. There is an urgent need for innovative tools to guide practical climate adaption strategies in Canadian cities, especially considering the 2020 analysis by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities-estimating an average annual spending of C$5.3 billion on local (city-level) climate change adaptation measures. The focus over next five years of the research program is driven by the fact that urban floods constitute the costliest natural disasters in Canada, and that the continued operation of critical infrastructure networks (CINs) (e.g., power, stormwater management, and transportation) is key for city resilience under climate stressors. As such, the proposed research focus areas are designed to tackle three key technical challenges pertaining to real city CINs': i) complex interdependence dynamic simulation; ii) cascade failure predictions under future flood projections considering different sources of uncertainty; and iii) optimized resilience management strategies prior to and throughout flood scenario time histories. Specifically, Focus Area I will aim at merging different city CIN functionalities and their interdependence in a temporal Network-of-Networks architecture, operationalized through a novel Interoperability Module-enabling physics-based CIN and flood simulators to interact, thus mimicking CIN interdependence in real cities. Adopting probabilistic performance-based design and financial network cascade risk assessment approaches, research in Focus Area II will pioneer the development of city stress test protocols to predict CIN flood-induced cascade failures under future climate projections incorporating different sources of uncertainty. Finally, Focus Area III will aim at optimizing city resilience management strategies employing sophisticated adaptive network and evolutionary computing techniques and develop interactive data- and 4D (3D+time) visualization interfaces to mobilize the generated research knowledge to stakeholders. The overarching goal of the research program is to create more sophisticated digital twin interoperability analytical tools that can consider different cities' social, economic, ecological and physical dimensions, and other forms of hazard and their interdependence within a multi-hazard environment, in order to mitigate city systemic risks and ensure a resilient Canada's to its changing climate for generations to come.