Prediction of extreme hydrologic events at gauged and ungauged locations under climate change conditions

极端水文事件，如洪水和干旱，与严重的经济和社会影响有关。因此，对这些事件进行充分的估计和预测是非常重要的。这些预算用于防洪和水工结构的设计和运作，例如水坝、溢洪道、堰或改道工程。局部水文频率分析将极端水文事件的大小与其发生频率联系起来，通常用于估算水文数据可用时特定重现期对应的洪水分位数。在资料很少或没有资料的地点，区域频率分析通常用于估计极端水文事件。本研究计划的短期目标是：1)整合当地和区域水文频率分析工具中有关气候变率（固有的年际调制）和变化（长期趋势）的信息；2)允许局部和区域水文频率模型考虑到水文事件的多变量性质。3)适当处理局部和区域水文频率模型中水文现象的非线性。该研究计划的长期目标是提高我们对极端水文事件的认识，并开发一个综合上述所有要素的风险评估总体框架。所提出的研究将导致有关极端水文现象的新科学知识的发展，并为水工结构的设计和操作提供一套前沿的实用工程工具。有待开发的知识和工具将有助于提高水资源管理人员的决策能力，从而减少公众对自然灾害风险的暴露，并减少与开发和操作昂贵的水利结构有关的费用。拟议的研究方案将有助于培训大量高素质人员，这些人员将在未来为学术研究实验室、水电公用事业、处理水资源的联邦和省级机构以及私人咨询公司的活动作出贡献。这些发展将给水资源管理者和加拿大带来切实的经济利益。

Extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, are associated with serious economic and social impacts. The adequate estimation and prediction of such events is hence of high importance. These estimates are used for the design and operation of flood protection and hydraulic structures, such as dams, spillways, weirs or diversion works. Local hydrological frequency analysis relates the magnitude of extreme hydrological events to their frequency of occurrence, and is commonly used for the estimation of flood quantiles corresponding to specific return periods when hydrological data is available. At sites where little or no data are available, regional frequency analysis is commonly used for the estimation of extreme hydrological events. The short term objectives of this research program are 1) to integrate information concerning climate variability (inherent inter-annual modulations) and change (long term trends) in local and regional hydrological frequency analysis tools; 2) to allow local and regional hydrological frequency models to take into consideration the multivariate nature of hydrological events, and 3) to properly handle the non-linearities in hydrological phenomena in local and regional hydrological frequency models. The long term objective of the research program is to improve our knowledge about extreme hydrological events and to develop a general framework for risk estimation that integrates all the elements listed above.The proposed research will lead to the development of new scientific knowledge concerning extreme hydrological phenomena and a set of cutting-edge practical engineering tools for the design and operation of hydraulic structures. The knowledge and tools to be developed will serve to improve decision-making capabilities by water resources managers, decreasing hence public exposure to natural hazard risks and reducing the costs associated with the development and operation of costly hydraulic structures. The proposed research program will contribute to the training of a large number of highly qualified personnel who will contribute in the future to the activities of academic research labs, hydroelectric utilities, federal and provincial agencies dealing with water resources, and private consulting firms. These developments will provide tangible economic benefits to water resources managers and to Canada.