Predictive ecology in a world with dynamic data and models

许多生态研究小组的首要目标是预测生态系统、物种或过程。事实上，对于许多研究人员来说，大规模的生态预报构成了当今一些最具挑战性的生态和保护问题的支柱，例如为范围广泛的物种制定保护战略。然而，大规模研究的关键挑战之一是，过程以及它们在空间中的相对重要性如何随着时间而变化。不断变化的未来条件使得理解一个系统内的关键生态机制变得至关重要，因为如果没有一些机械性的理解，经验相关性将很快失效。长期目标是为生态模拟模型建立新的愿景和现实。这包括构建和使用基于R的开放系统，构建新的--并适应我们和其他人现有的--开放和可互换的生态模型。一旦完成，我们将评估紧急现象，如稳定性、恢复力和反馈，为大陆尺度的土地管理提供信息。这里的具体目标是1)建立新的、大规模的、植物功能特征演替模型，2)在广泛的系统中测试该模型，3)评估生态后果和植被管理(如固碳)和其他管理措施(如驯鹿、火、虫害和伐木)之间的权衡。这项研究将产生3种不同程度的影响。首先，我们将开发的工具将有助于科学界及其建立新模型的需要。其次，我们将开发的新模型将在新的开放/可互换的建模和决策社区中使用。第三，我们将推出网络应用，让公众参与到生态模型中来，让决策变得透明，这是很少有的。这将使与生态模型和模型师先前设想的更广泛的受众的接触和联系达到一个新的水平。

An overarching objective of many ecological research groups is to forecast ecosystems, species or processes. Indeed, for many researchers, large-scale ecological forecasts form the backbone of some of the most challenging ecological and conservation problems of today, such as building conservation strategies for wide-ranging species. One of the key challenges for large-scale studies, however, is that processes, and how their relative importance varies in space, are changing through time. Changing future conditions make it critical to understand key ecological mechanisms within a system, as empirical correlations will fail sooner without some mechanistic understanding. The long term objective is to build a new vision and reality for ecological simulation models. This involves building and using open systems based around R, building new -- and adapting our and other's existing -- ecological models that are open and interchangeable. Once these are done, we will evaluate emergent phenomena, such as stability, resilience, and feedbacks to inform land management at continental scales.The specific objectives here are 1) to build a new, large-scale, plant-functional-trait succession model, 2) test this in a wide array of systems, and 3) evaluate ecological consequences and trade-offs between vegetation management (e.g., carbon sequestration) and other management practices (e.g., caribou, fire, pest, and logging).This research will have 3 different levels of impact. First, the tools we will develop will be useful for the scientific community and its need to build new models. Second, the new models we will develop will be available for use in the new and open/interchangeable modeling and decision making community. Third, we will produce web apps that will allow the public to become involved in ecological models, allowing a transparency of decision making that has rarely been available. This will allow for a new level of outreach and connection to a much wider audience than previously envisioned for ecological models and modelers.