Climate Change in the Eastern Arctic

这项研究的总体目标是提供一个气候变化的影响评估，北极东部地区的重点是哈德逊湾，福克斯盆地和哈德逊海峡。这项工作结合了北极东部气候条件的基础科学、这些条件的建模以及在进行气候变化影响评估时使用这些条件。海冰主导着北极东部的气候。该区域已经经历了有据可查的气候变化，并将在未来几十年内经历更剧烈的变化。根据这一总体目标提出的拟议研究项目将开发：1）气候数据分析，这将使使用细致入微的气候指标检测气候变率和变化成为可能，特别适用于气候重建，2）使用聚类分析评估海冰空间分布及其潜在冰动力学的技术，3）从耦合气候模式中挑选出一系列海冰状况预测，并通过使用当地收集的气候数据进行区域建模和统计降尺度来增强，以及4）评估预测的气候变化对当地原住民和因努伊特人社区、区域生物群的影响，在第一个项目中，几种利用温度细微变化的新技术，NSERC过去资助的工作将用于重建卫星侦察时代（1970年以前）之前的海冰状况。这将使时间序列更长，并有能力梳理出气候系统周期性行为造成的变化和最近人为气候变化造成的变化。在第二个项目中，通过对网格海冰数据进行聚类分析，研究了北极东部主要盆地内的海冰动态，这是一种了解海冰如何发展、传播和分解的新方法，是年周期的一部分。这也将有助于了解海冰厚度的区域变化。第三个项目更新了气候实验室在2005年发表的开创性工作，该工作提供了一套耦合气候模型对海冰变化的预测。早期工作的各个方面将得到更新，然后利用区域气候模型的结果和通过统计降尺度产生的预测加以扩充。这将提供适合于气候变化影响评估的预测，这是第四个研究项目的重点。越来越多的地方社区正在经历气候变化对粮食安全、交通安全、住房基础设施和传统生计的影响。将利用气候变化影响评估框架评估这些影响和其他影响，该框架为适应战略提供必要的工具。

The overarching goal of this research is to provide a climate change impact assessment for the Eastern Arctic region focussing on Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, and Hudson Strait. The work combines the basic science of climate conditions in the Eastern Arctic, the modelling of these conditions and the use of these in performing climate change impact assessments. Sea ice dominates the climate of the Eastern Arctic. This region has already experienced well documented climate change and will experience even more dramatic change over the next few decades. The proposed research projects stemming from this overarching goal will develop: 1) climate data analytics that will enable the detection of climate variability and change using nuanced climate metrics, especially suitable for climate reconstruction, 2) techniques to assess spatial distribution of sea ice and its underlying ice dynamics using cluster analysis, 3) a range of projections of sea ice conditions culled from coupled climate models and augmented by regional modelling and statistical downscaling using locally collected climate data, and 4) assessments of impacts of the projected climate change on local First Nations and Inuit communities, regional biota, and physical geography such as permafrost degradation.In the first project several novel techniques using nuanced changes in temperature which build on past NSERC funded work will be used to reconstruct sea ice conditions prior to the satellite reconnaissance era (pre-1970). This will enable a longer time series and the ability to tease out changes that are the result of cyclical behaviour in the climate system and those resulting from recent anthropogenically induced climate change. In the second project, sea ice dynamics within the major Eastern Arctic basins are examined by using cluster analysis on gridded sea ice data, a novel approach to understanding how sea ice develops, propagates and breaks up as part of the annual cycle. This will also help in understanding the regional variation of sea ice thickness. The third project updates pioneering work done in the Climate Lab that was published in 2005 that provided projections of sea ice change from a suite of coupled climate models. Aspects of the earlier work will be updated and then augmented using the results of regional climate models and projections generated using statistical downscaling. This will provide projections suitable for climate change impact assessments which is the focus of the fourth research project. Increasingly local communities are experiencing the effects of a changing climate impacting on food security, transportation safety, housing infrastructure and traditional livelihoods. These, and other impacts, will be assessed using a climate change impact assessment framework providing the necessary tools for adaptation strategies.