Detection, not mortality, constrains the evolution of virulence
Detection, not mortality, constrains the evolution of virulence
复制标题
限制毒力进化的是检测，而不是死亡率
DOI：
10.1101/2021.11.14.468516
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kennedy, David A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kennedy, David A.
当杀死宿主就结束了病原体自身的传播机会时，为什么病原体会进化来杀死宿主呢？大量科学文献试图用“权衡理论”来回答这个问题，该理论认为宿主死亡率之所以持续存在，是因为其成本被与宿主死亡率相关的其他性状的好处所平衡。最常被提及的权衡是死亡率-传播权衡，即假设越来越有害的病原体在宿主活着时以更高的速率从宿主传播，但病原体通过杀死宿主来缩短其感染期。在这里，我表明，死亡成本太小，不足以合理地限制疾病严重程度的演变，除非在存活率很低的系统中。或者，我提出，疾病的严重程度可以更容易地受到由于检测感染而导致的行为改变的成本的限制，从而越来越有害的病原体被检测到的可能性越来越大，并且检测后的行为发生变化，从而限制了传播的机会。我使用数学模型展示了检测可以限制疾病严重程度的条件。最终，这一论点可以解释为什么对权衡理论的实证支持有限且好坏参半。
Why would a pathogen evolve to kill its hosts when killing a host ends a pathogen’s own opportunity for transmission? A vast body of scientific literature has attempted to answer this question using “trade-off theory,” which posits that host mortality persists due to its cost being balanced by benefits of other traits that correlate with host mortality. The most commonly invoked trade-off is the mortality-transmission trade-off, where increasingly harmful pathogens are assumed to transmit at higher rates from hosts while the hosts are alive, but the pathogens truncate their infectious period by killing their hosts. Here I show that costs of mortality are too small to plausibly constrain the evolution of disease severity except in systems where survival is rare. I alternatively propose that disease severity can be much more readily constrained by a cost of behavioral change due to the detection of infection, whereby increasingly harmful pathogens have increasing likelihood of detection and behavioral change following detection, thereby limiting opportunities for transmission. Using a mathematical model, I show the conditions under which detection can limit disease severity. Ultimately, this argument may explain why empirical support for trade-off theory has been limited and mixed.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Alizon, S;van Baalen, M
通讯作者：
van Baalen, M
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1983.0075
发表时间：
1983-01-01
期刊：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY SERIES B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
影响因子：
--
作者：
MAY, RM;ANDERSON, RM
通讯作者：
ANDERSON, RM
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Shaw CL;Kennedy DA
通讯作者：
Kennedy DA
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Berngruber TW;Froissart R;Choisy M;Gandon S
通讯作者：
Gandon S
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Boots, M;Hudson, PJ;Sasaki, A
通讯作者：
Sasaki, A