Do neighborhood attributes moderate the relationship between alcohol establishment density and crime?

Do neighborhood attributes moderate the relationship between alcohol establishment density and crime?
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DOI:
10.1007/s11121-013-0446-y
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发表时间:
2015-02
期刊:
影响因子:
3.5
通讯作者:
Toomey, Traci L.
Toomey, Traci L.
中科院分区:
医学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Erickson, Darin J.;Carlin, Bradley P.;Lenk, Kathleen M.;Quick, Harrison S.;Harwood, Eileen M.;Toomey, Traci L.

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尽管大量研究发现酒精场所密度与各种类型的犯罪之间存在正相关关系,但很少有人研究邻里属性(例如学校、公园)如何调节这种关联。我们使用来自明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯市的数据,以邻里为分析单位 (n = 83)。我们研究了八种类型的犯罪(袭击、强奸、抢劫、破坏公物、滋扰犯罪、公共场所饮酒、醉酒驾驶、未成年人持有/消费酒精),并以每道路英里的场所总数来衡量密度。被评估为潜在调节因素的社区属性包括非酒精企业、学校、公园、宗教机构、社区活动、社区质量和废弃房屋数量。使用贝叶斯技术,我们为每个犯罪结果创建了一个模型(考虑空间自相关并控制相关人口统计数据),并使用交互项(调节器×密度)来测试每个潜在的调节效应。很少有交互项具有统计显着性。至少有一所大学的存在是唯一持续调节密度与犯罪关联的邻里属性,大学的存在削弱了密度与三种犯罪类型(袭击、滋扰犯罪和公共消费)之间的关联。然而,在解释大学存在的调节作用时应谨慎,因为我们样本中的大学数量较少。除了大学的存在之外,邻里属性缺乏调节作用,这表明在任何邻里增加酒精场所,无论其其他属性如何,都可能导致各种犯罪的增加。
Although numerous studies have found a positive association between density of alcohol establishments and various types of crime, few have examined how neighborhood attributes (e.g., schools, parks) could moderate this association. We used data from Minneapolis, Minnesota with neighborhood as the unit of analysis (n = 83). We examined eight types of crime (assault, rape, robbery, vandalism, nuisance crime, public alcohol consumption, driving while intoxicated, underage alcohol possession/consumption) and measured density as total number of establishments per roadway mile. Neighborhood attributes assessed as potential moderators included non-alcohol businesses, schools, parks, religious institutions, neighborhood activism, neighborhood quality, and number of condemned houses. Using Bayesian techniques, we created a model for each crime outcome (accounting for spatial auto-correlation and controlling for relevant demographics) with an interaction term (moderator × density) to test each potential moderating effect. Few interaction terms were statistically significant. Presence of at least one college was the only neighborhood attribute that consistently moderated the density-crime association, with presence of a college attenuating the association between density and three types of crime (assaults, nuisance crime, and public consumption). However, caution should be used when interpreting the moderating effect of college presence because of the small number of colleges in our sample. The lack of moderating effects of neighborhood attributes except for presence of a college suggests that the addition of alcohol establishments to any neighborhood regardless of its other attributes could result in an increase in a wide range of crime.
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