A probabilistic, dynamic, and attribute-wise model of intertemporal choice.
A probabilistic, dynamic, and attribute-wise model of intertemporal choice.
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DOI：
10.1037/a0035976
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发表时间：
2014-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Busemeyer JR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dai J;Busemeyer JR
大多数跨期选择的理论和实证研究都假设了一个确定性和静态的视角，导致了广泛采用的延迟折扣模型。然而，作为偏好选择的一种形式，跨期选择可能是由一个随机过程产生的，需要一些深思熟虑的时间才能做出决定。我们进行了三个实验，以探讨如何选择和决策时间变化的功能，旨在检查延迟持续时间的影响，共同的差异效应，和跨期选择的幅度效应的操作。结果，特别是那些与延迟持续时间的影响，挑战了传统的确定性和静态的观点，并呼吁替代方法。因此，各种静态或动态的随机选择模型进行了探索，并适合选择数据，包括替代明智的模型来自传统的指数或双曲线贴现函数和属性明智的模型建立在比较直接或相对差异的金钱和延迟。此外，第一次，动态扩散模型，如那些基于决策场理论，也适合选择和响应时间的数据同时。结果表明，直接差异、目标值与时间的幂变换和可变扩散参数的属性扩散模型表现最好，可以解释所有三种跨期效应。此外，选择比例和反应时间之间的经验关系与扩散模型的预测是一致的，因此有利于跨期选择，需要一些审议时间来做出决定的随机选择过程。
Most theoretical and empirical research on intertemporal choice assumes a deterministic and static perspective, leading to the widely adopted delay discounting models. As a form of preferential choice, however, intertemporal choice may be generated by a stochastic process that requires some deliberation time to reach a decision. We conducted three experiments to investigate how choice and decision time varied as a function of manipulations designed to examine the delay duration effect, the common difference effect, and the magnitude effect in intertemporal choice. The results, especially those associated with the delay duration effect, challenged the traditional deterministic and static view and called for alternative approaches. Consequently, various static or dynamic stochastic choice models were explored and fit to the choice data, including alternative-wise models derived from the traditional exponential or hyperbolic discount function and attribute-wise models built upon comparisons of direct or relative differences in money and delay. Furthermore, for the first time, dynamic diffusion models, such as those based on decision field theory, were also fit to the choice and response time data simultaneously. The results revealed that the attribute-wise diffusion model with direct differences, power transformations of objective value and time, and varied diffusion parameter performed the best and could account for all three intertemporal effects. In addition, the empirical relationship between choice proportions and response times was consistent with the prediction of diffusion models and thus favored a stochastic choice process for intertemporal choice that requires some deliberation time to make a decision.
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