Is R(0) a good predictor of final epidemic size: foot-and-mouth disease in the UK.
Is R(0) a good predictor of final epidemic size: foot-and-mouth disease in the UK.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.02.019
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发表时间：
2009-06-21
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Keeling, Matt J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tildesley, Michael J.;Keeling, Matt J.
流行病模型的主要用途之一是根据最初的几个病例预测疫情的规模。在同质和非空间模型中，基本繁殖率R0和最终的传染病规模之间存在直接的关系；然而，当疾病传播具有显着的空间成分并且人口是异质性时，预测流行病规模如何随初始感染源的变化要复杂得多。在这里，我们使用一个完善的口蹄疫传播的时空模型，该模型被参数化以匹配2001年英国的疫情，以解决疫情规模与最初受感染农场的性质之间的关系。我们表明，在发生流行病的可能性和流行病影响(因感染或控制而失去牲畜的农场总数)方面都存在相当大的异质性，并且这两个因素最好通过不同空间尺度的测量来捕捉。发生疫情的可能性可以根据初始农场的繁殖率(Ri)的知识来预测，而通过对受感染农场周围58公里范围内的第二代繁殖率平均来预测疫情发生的影响是最好的。将这两个预测结合起来，可以很好地评估这个复杂系统中存在的局部和更大范围的异质性。
One of the main uses of an epidemic model is to predict the scale of an outbreak from the first few cases. In a homogeneous and non-spatial model there is a straightforward relationship between the basic reproductive ratio, R0, and the final epidemic size; however when there is a significant spatial component to disease spread and the population is heterogeneous predicting how the epidemic size varies with the initial source of infection is far more complex. Here we use a well-developed spatio-temporal model of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease, parameterised to match the 2001 UK outbreak, to address the relationship between the scale of the epidemic and the nature of the initially infected farm. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in both the likelihood of a epidemic and the epidemic impact (total number of farms losing livestock to either infection or control) and that these two elements are best captured by measurements at different spatial scales. The likelihood of an epidemic can be predicted from a knowledge of the reproduction ratio of the initial farm (Ri), whereas the epidemic impact conditional on an epidemic occurring is best predicted by averaging the second-generation reproduction ratio in a 58 km ring around the infected farm. Combining these two predictions provides a good assessment of both the local and larger-scale heterogeneities present in this complex system.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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