National assessment of human health effects of climate change in Portugal: approach and key findings.
National assessment of human health effects of climate change in Portugal: approach and key findings.
复制标题
国家对葡萄牙气候变化的人类健康影响的评估：方法和关键发现。
DOI：
10.1289/ehp.8431
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发表时间：
2006-12
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Kovats S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Casimiro E;Calheiros J;Santos FD;Kovats S
在这项研究中，我们调查了葡萄牙气候变化对与高温相关的死亡率、与空气污染相关的健康影响以及选定的媒介传播疾病的潜在影响。该评估使用了未来一系列区域气候模型的气候情景。如果不采取适应措施，里斯本每年与高温相关的死亡率可能会从 1980 年至 1998 年的每 10 万人 5.4 至 6 人增加到 2020 年代的 8.5 至 12.1 人，到 2050 年代最高可达 29.5 人。预计天气变暖且多变，可能会导致冬季二氧化氮水平更好地分散，而较高的气温可能会增加对流层臭氧水平，从而降低温暖月份的空气质量。我们使用生态场景来描述媒介和寄生虫的未来变化，估计了人畜共患病的未来风险。疟疾和血吸虫病目前在葡萄牙尚未流行，它们对受感染媒介的引入比对温度变化更敏感。气温升高可能会增加葡萄牙目前流行的人畜共患病的传播风险，例如利什曼病、莱姆病和地中海斑疹热。
In this study we investigated the potential impact of climate change in Portugal on heat-related mortality, air pollution–related health effects, and selected vectorborne diseases. The assessment used climate scenarios from two regional climate models for a range of future time periods. The annual heat-related death rates in Lisbon may increase from between 5.4 and 6 per 100,000 in 1980–1998 to between 8.5 and 12.1 by the 2020s and to a maximum of 29.5 by the 2050s, if no adaptations occur. The projected warmer and more variable weather may result in better dispersion of nitrogen dioxide levels in winter, whereas the higher temperatures may reduce air quality during the warmer months by increasing tropospheric ozone levels. We estimated the future risk of zoonoses using ecologic scenarios to describe future changes in vectors and parasites. Malaria and schistosomiasis, which are currently not endemic in Portugal, are more sensitive to the introduction of infected vectors than to temperature changes. Higher temperatures may increase the transmission risk of zoonoses that are currently endemic to Portugal, such as leishmaniasis, Lyme disease, and Mediterranean spotted fever.
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影响因子：
1.1
作者：
Guest, CS;Willson, K;McMichael, AJ
通讯作者：
McMichael, AJ
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Dessai, S
通讯作者：
Dessai, S
影响因子：
9.4
作者：
Collares-Pereira, M;Couceiro, S;Cunha, C
通讯作者：
Cunha, C
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Dohm, DJ;O'Guinn, ML;Turell, MJ
通讯作者：
Turell, MJ
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Dessai, S
通讯作者：
Dessai, S