Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe.
Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2011.0255
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发表时间：
2012-02-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Baylis M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guis H;Caminade C;Calvete C;Morse AP;Tran A;Baylis M
病媒传播的疾病是对气候最敏感的疾病之一，因为病媒的生态和病媒内病原体的发展速度在很大程度上取决于环境条件。蓝舌病（BT）是最近在欧洲出现的反刍动物虫媒病毒病，经常被引用为气候对疾病发生影响的例证，尽管还没有研究证明这种关联。在这里，我们开发了一个框架，定量评估气候对BT的出现在欧洲的影响，通过整合高分辨率的气候观测和模型模拟的BT传输风险的机制模型。我们证明了一个气候驱动的模型解释，在空间和时间，BT的最近出现和传播的许多方面，包括2006年BT爆发在欧洲西北部发生在一年的最高预计风险至少自1960年以来。此外，该模型提供了BT的出现机制的洞察力，表明整个欧洲的出现的驱动因素在南方和北方之间是不同的。在11个区域气候模型集合模拟的未来气候的驱动下，该模型预测欧洲大部分地区未来出现BT的风险增加，但趋势不确定。这里所述的框架可调整和适用于其他疾病，在这些疾病中，气候与疾病传播风险之间的联系可以量化，从而可以评估气候变化对这些疾病未来影响的规模和不确定性。
Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases.
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影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Gerry, AC;Mullens, BA
通讯作者：
Mullens, BA
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
GOLDSMIT, L;BARZILAI, E;TADMOR, A
通讯作者：
TADMOR, A
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Goldarazena, A.;Romon, P.;Delecolle, J-C.
通讯作者：
Delecolle, J-C.
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2007.1110
发表时间：
2008-03-06
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gubbins S;Carpenter S;Baylis M;Wood JL;Mellor PS
通讯作者：
Mellor PS
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Gerry, Alec C.;Monteys, V. Sarto I.;Mullens, Bradley A.
通讯作者：
Mullens, Bradley A.