Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.
Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.
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气候和登革热的传播：证据和影响。
DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1306556
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发表时间：
2013-11
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Ernst K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morin CW;Comrie AC;Ernst K
背景：气候通过影响媒介动态、病原体发展和蚊子/人类相互作用影响登革热生态。虽然这些关系是已知的，但气候变化对传播的影响尚不清楚。气候驱动的统计和基于过程的模型正在被用来完善我们对这些关系的了解，并预测预测气候变化对登革热发生的影响，但结果并不一致。目的：我们试图确定主要气候对登革热病毒生态的影响，并评估基于气候的登革热模型描述气候和登革热之间的关联，模拟疫情，并预测气候变化的影响的能力。研究方法：我们回顾了从实验室研究、实地研究和媒介、登革热发病率和气候条件之间关联的统计分析中得出的气候与登革热之间直接和间接关系的证据。我们评估了气候驱动的、基于过程的登革热模型的潜在贡献，并提供了改善其性能的建议。结果和讨论：气候变量和影响登革热传播的因素之间的关系是复杂的。气候变量可能通过系统的一个方面增加登革热传播潜力，同时通过另一个方面降低传播潜力。这种复杂性至少可以部分解释登革热和气候之间统计关联的不一致性。基于过程的模型可以解释复杂的动态，但往往忽略了登革热生态学的重要方面，特别是病毒的发展和宿主物种的相互作用。结论：综合和应用当前关于气候对登革热病毒生态学各个方面影响的知识将有助于指导未来的研究，并能够更好地预测气候变化对登革热发病率的影响。引文：Morin CW，Comrie AC，Ernst KC。2013.气候和登革热传播：证据和影响。环境健康展望121：1264-1272; http：dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306556
Background: Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. Objective: We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. Methods: We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Results and Discussion: Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host–species interactions. Conclusion: Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence. Citation: Morin CW, Comrie AC, Ernst KC. 2013. Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications. Environ Health Perspect 121:1264–1272; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306556
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影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Cazelles B;Chavez M;McMichael AJ;Hales S
通讯作者：
Hales S
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0609
发表时间：
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影响因子：
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发表时间：
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通讯作者：
Stennett, Roxann
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