Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks.
Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-81096-9
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发表时间：
2021-01-21
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Brand SPC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Möhlmann TWR;Keeling MJ;Wennergren U;Favia G;Santman-Berends I;Takken W;Koenraadt CJM;Brand SPC
自2006年发生重大疫情以来，8型蓝舌病病毒(BTV)一直在欧洲传播，给畜牧场造成了经济损失。传播BTV的蚊子咬人活动的不可预测性意味着很难计算准确的传播模型。这项研究独一无二地将欧洲不同纬度(瑞典、荷兰和意大利)的田野蚊子采集与多尺度建模方法结合在一起。我们推断了影响蚊虫捕捉动态的环境因素，并将预测的蚊虫捕获量与BTV传播动态直接联系起来。使用动态传播模型，将渔获量预测与2007年荷兰BTV暴发期间观察到的哨牛流行率联系起来。我们能够直接推断每天的蚊子捕获量预测和每头奶牛每天的真实咬合率之间的比例参数。与每天每头牛的咬合率相比，24小时诱捕器的诱蚊捕获量的比例参数约为50%。在欧洲不同季节和年份推广估计的咬合率表明，虽然传播强度预计在不同的牛群之间差别很大，但西欧约95%的幼稚牛群在过去15年中面临持续传播的风险。
Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 has been circulating in Europe since a major outbreak occurred in 2006, causing economic losses to livestock farms. The unpredictability of the biting activity of midges that transmit BTV implies difficulty in computing accurate transmission models. This study uniquely integrates field collections of midges at a range of European latitudes (in Sweden, The Netherlands, and Italy), with a multi-scale modelling approach. We inferred the environmental factors that influence the dynamics of midge catching, and then directly linked predicted midge catches to BTV transmission dynamics. Catch predictions were linked to the observed prevalence amongst sentinel cattle during the 2007 BTV outbreak in The Netherlands using a dynamic transmission model. We were able to directly infer a scaling parameter between daily midge catch predictions and the true biting rate per cow per day. Compared to biting rate per cow per day the scaling parameter was around 50% of 24 h midge catches with traps. Extending the estimated biting rate across Europe, for different seasons and years, indicated that whilst intensity of transmission is expected to vary widely from herd to herd, around 95% of naïve herds in western Europe have been at risk of sustained transmission over the last 15 years.
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影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Gerry, AC;Mullens, BA
通讯作者：
Mullens, BA
DOI：
10.1046/j.1439-0442.2003.00513.x
发表时间：
2003-04-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF VETERINARY MEDICINE SERIES A-PHYSIOLOGY PATHOLOGY CLINICAL MEDICINE
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kanitz, E;Otten, W;Manteuffel, G
通讯作者：
Manteuffel, G
DOI：
10.20506/rst.34.1.2347
发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
0.6
作者：
Carpenter, S.;Veronesi, E.;Venter, G.
通讯作者：
Venter, G.
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Batten, C. A.;Bachanek-Bankowska, K.;Oura, C. A. L.
通讯作者：
Oura, C. A. L.
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2007.1110
发表时间：
2008-03-06
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gubbins S;Carpenter S;Baylis M;Wood JL;Mellor PS
通讯作者：
Mellor PS