Age-dependent patterns of bovine tuberculosis in cattle.
Age-dependent patterns of bovine tuberculosis in cattle.
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DOI：
10.1186/1297-9716-44-97
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发表时间：
2013-10-16
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Wood JL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brooks-Pollock E;Conlan AJ;Mitchell AP;Blackwell R;McKinley TJ;Wood JL
牛结核病(BTB)是一种重要的畜牧业疾病，严重影响工业化和前工业化国家的养牛业。像其他哺乳动物中的结核病一样，感染是终生的，如果没有得到诊断，可能会在接触数年后发展为疾病。人类的疾病风险高度依赖于年龄，然而，在牛身上，与年龄相关的风险尚未被量化，这主要是由于数据不足和诊断有限。在这里，我们通过结合牛群水平的测试数据和来自牛追踪系统(CTS)的空间移动数据来估计英国特定年龄的反应堆速率。使用催化模型，我们发现感染风险与年龄有很强的相关性，检测到感染的概率随着年龄的增加而增加。2004至2009年间，牛的感染率在1%左右波动。特定年龄的发病率单调增加，直到24-36个月，12-36个月龄的牛的感染率最高。24个月以下的肉牛和奶牛经历了类似的感染风险，但在较大年龄段出现了重大差异。2004-2009年，牛的平均繁殖量超过1头。这些方法揭示了不同人口结构和测试模式下，BTB发病率随年龄变化的一致模式。这些结果为牛结核病的流行病学和控制提供了实际的见解，表明以12至36个月内的牛为目标的大规模控制方案可能是有益的。
Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an important livestock disease, seriously impacting cattle industries in both industrialised and pre-industrialised countries. Like TB in other mammals, infection is life long and, if undiagnosed, may progress to disease years after exposure. The risk of disease in humans is highly age-dependent, however in cattle, age-dependent risks have yet to be quantified, largely due to insufficient data and limited diagnostics. Here, we estimate age-specific reactor rates in Great Britain by combining herd-level testing data with spatial movement data from the Cattle Tracing System (CTS). Using a catalytic model, we find strong age dependencies in infection risk and that the probability of detecting infection increases with age. Between 2004 and 2009, infection incidence in cattle fluctuated around 1%. Age-specific incidence increased monotonically until 24–36 months, with cattle aged between 12 and 36 months experiencing the highest rates of infection. Beef and dairy cattle under 24 months experienced similar infection risks, however major differences occurred in older ages. The average reproductive number in cattle was greater than 1 for the years 2004–2009. These methods reveal a consistent pattern of BTB rates with age, across different population structures and testing patterns. The results provide practical insights into BTB epidemiology and control, suggesting that targeting a mass control programme at cattle between 12 and 36 months could be beneficial.
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影响因子：
3.3
作者：
MONAGHAN, ML;DOHERTY, ML;QUINN, PJ
通讯作者：
QUINN, PJ
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Karolemeas, K.;McKinley, T. J.;Wood, J. L. N.
通讯作者：
Wood, J. L. N.
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Ramirez-Villaescusa, A. M.;Medley, G. F.;Green, L. E.
通讯作者：
Green, L. E.
影响因子：
--
作者：
ANDERSON, RM;MAY, RM
通讯作者：
MAY, RM
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Green, LE;Cornell, SJ
通讯作者：
Cornell, SJ