The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China.
The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China.
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中国COVID-19随时间变化的传播动态和同步公共卫生干预措施。
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.11.005
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发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ma W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xiao J;Hu J;He G;Liu T;Kang M;Rong Z;Lin L;Zhong H;Huang Q;Deng A;Zeng W;Tan X;Zeng S;Zhu Z;Li J;Gong D;Wan D;Chen S;Guo L;Li Y;Li Y;Sun L;Liang W;Song T;He J;Ma W
我们的目的是估计COVID-19在中国、武汉市和广东省的时变传播动态，并与严重急性呼吸道综合征（SARS）进行比较。截至2020年3月20日，中国COVID-19病例的数据收集自流行病学调查或官方网站。此外，还获得了2002- 2003年广东省、北京和香港的SARS病例数据。我们估计了COVID-19和SARS的倍增时间、基本繁殖数（R 0）和随时间变化的繁殖数（Rt）。截至2020年3月20日，中国内地共发现80，739例本地感染的COVID-19病例，大部分病例于2020年1月20日至2月29日期间报告。COVID-19在中国和武汉的R 0值分别为5.0和4.8，大于SARS在广东（R 0 = 2.3）、香港（R 0 = 2.3）和北京（R 0 = 2.6）的R 0值。在COVID-19疫情开始时，中国的Rt值达到8. 4的峰值，然后在一个月内迅速下降至1. 0以下。SARS的Rt曲线出现多峰波动，最高峰低于COVID-19。COVID-19的传播性远高于SARS，然而，一系列防控干预措施有效遏制了疫情。在全球大流行的背景下，需要持续努力防止疫情反弹。
We aimed to estimate the time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China, Wuhan City, and Guangdong province, and compare to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Data on COVID-19 cases in China up to 20 March 2020 was collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on SARS cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing, and Hong Kong during 2002–3 was also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number (R0), and time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 and SARS. As of 20 March 2020, 80,739 locally acquired COVID-19 cases were identified in mainland China, with most cases reported between 20 January and 29 February 2020. The R0 value of COVID-19 in China and Wuhan was 5.0 and 4.8, respectively, which was greater than the R0 value of SARS in Guangdong (R0 = 2.3), Hong Kong (R0 = 2.3), and Beijing (R0 = 2.6). At the start of the COVID-19 epidemic, the Rt value in China peaked at 8.4 and then declined quickly to below 1.0 in one month. With SARS, the Rt curve saw fluctuations with more than one peak, the highest peak was lower than that for COVID-19. COVID-19 has much higher transmissibility than SARS, however, a series of prevention and control interventions to suppress the outbreak were effective. Sustained efforts are needed to prevent the rebound of the epidemic in the context of the global pandemic.
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影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Hui DS;Chan MC;Wu AK;Ng PC
通讯作者：
Ng PC
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1616438114
发表时间：
2017-04-11
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Peak, Corey M.;Childs, Lauren M.;Buckee, Caroline O.
通讯作者：
Buckee, Caroline O.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Lipsitch, M;Cohen, T;Murray, M
通讯作者：
Murray, M
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Lai, Shengjie;Ruktanonchai, Nick W.;Tatem, Andrew J.
通讯作者：
Tatem, Andrew J.
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Feng, Zijian;Li, Qun;McGoogan, Jennifer M.
通讯作者：
McGoogan, Jennifer M.