The impact of corona populism: Empirical evidence from Austria and theory.
The impact of corona populism: Empirical evidence from Austria and theory.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jebo.2023.02.021
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发表时间：
2023-05
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Mellacher, Patrick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mellacher, Patrick
关键词：
我通过调查奥地利一个主要右翼政党(FPÖ)在新冠肺炎大流行期间的政策180度大转弯，研究了危机情况下公众舆论和政党政策之间的协同演变。我的分析表明，存在i)“唐斯”效应和ii)“政党认同”效应，前者使选民根据政策一致性调整他们的政党偏好，后者使党派人士根据“他们的”政党纲领重新调整他们的政策偏好。具体地说，我使用个人层面的小组数据来表明：i)在2019年新冠肺炎之前的选举中没有投票给FPÖ的选民更有可能在该党接受“日冕民粹主义”后投票给该党，以及ii)宣布在2019年投票给FPÖ的受访者的信念在投票后才在四个与健康相关的维度中的三个方面与其他人口背道而驰，导致他们低估了新冠肺炎相对于其他人口构成的威胁。使用聚合水平的面板数据，我研究了这种转变是否产生了显著的行为差异，这可以从报告的病例和人均死亡人数方面观察到。矛盾的是，在轮换之后，计划生育投票份额与人均死亡人数显著正相关，但与报告的感染人数无关。我假设这可以追溯到测试中的自我选择偏差，这导致了在转弯后“日冕怀疑者”的数量和未报告病例的比例之间的相关性。我在新冠肺炎流行率研究的个人层面数据中找到了对这一假设的实证支持，该研究涉及参与者真实与报告的感染状态的信息。最后，我研究了一个简单的异质混合流行病学模型，并表明测试偏差确实可以解释死亡人数增加而报告病例没有增加这一明显的悖论。我的结果可以用来丰富关于选民和政党行为之间的共同进化的正式分析。
I study the co-evolution between public opinion and party policy in situations of crises by investigating a policy U-turn of a major Austrian right-wing party (FPÖ) during the Covid-19 pandemic. My analysis suggests the existence of both i) a “Downsian” effect, which causes voters to adapt their party preferences based on policy congruence and ii) a “party identification” effect, which causes partisans to realign their policy preferences based on “their” party's platform. Specifically, I use individual-level panel data to show that i) “corona skeptical” voters who did not vote for the FPÖ in the pre-Covid-19 elections of 2019 were more likely to vote for the party after it embraced “corona populism”, and ii) beliefs of respondents who declared that they voted for the FPÖ in 2019 diverged from the rest of the population in three out of four health-related dimensions only after the turn, causing them to underestimate the threat posed by Covid-19 compared to the rest of the population. Using aggregate-level panel data, I study whether the turn has produced significant behavioral differences which could be observed in terms of reported cases and deaths per capita. Paradoxically, after the turn the FPÖ vote share is significantly positively correlated with deaths per capita, but not with the reported number of infections. I hypothesize that this can be traced back to a self-selection bias in testing, which causes a correlation between the number of “corona skeptics” and the share of unreported cases after the turn. I find empirical support for this hypothesis in individual-level data from a Covid-19 prevalence study that involves information about participants’ true vs. reported infection status. I finally study a simple heterogeneous mixing epidemiological model and show that a testing bias can indeed explain the apparent paradox of an increase in deaths without an increase in reported cases. My results can, among others, be used to enrich formal analyses regarding the co-evolution between voter and party behavior.
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