Lower air pollution during COVID-19 lock-down: improving models and methods estimating ozone impacts on crops.

Lower air pollution during COVID-19 lock-down: improving models and methods estimating ozone impacts on crops.
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DOI:
10.1098/rsta.2020.0188
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发表时间:
2020-10-30
期刊:
Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
van den Berg M
van den Berg M
中科院分区:
其他
文献类型:
--
作者:
Dentener F;Emberson L;Galmarini S;Cappelli G;Irimescu A;Mihailescu D;Van Dingenen R;van den Berg M

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我们认为,在2020年COVID-19封城期间,空气污染物排放量前所未有地意外减少,可能导致季节性臭氧浓度下降,并对作物产量产生积极影响。COVID-19减排的潜在影响的初步评估是使用一组六种情景进行的,这些情景分别假设欧洲和全球能源、工业、道路运输和国际航运行业的年度减排量为30%和50%,航空行业为80%。在全球减少50%的设想方案中,亚洲作物种植区在生长季节的最大臭氧减少量高达12 ppb,北美和欧洲高达6 ppb。在欧洲,臭氧应对措施对其他大陆、国际航运和航空的排放量下降比对欧洲内部的排放量变化更为敏感。我们证明,对于小麦,臭氧前体物排放变化的总体幅度可能导致产量提高2%至8%。2020年北方生长季节臭氧前体排放量的预期减少幅度为在现实条件下测试和改进作物模型以及臭氧对作物影响的实验性暴露反应关系提供了机会。这篇文章是一个讨论会的一部分问题“空气质量,过去现在和未来”。
We suggest that the unprecedented and unintended decrease of emissions of air pollutants during the COVID-19 lock-down in 2020 could lead to declining seasonal ozone concentrations and positive impacts on crop yields. An initial assessment of the potential effects of COVID-19 emission reductions was made using a set of six scenarios that variously assumed annual European and global emission reductions of 30% and 50% for the energy, industry, road transport and international shipping sectors, and 80% for the aviation sector. The greatest ozone reductions during the growing season reached up to 12  ppb over crop growing regions in Asia and up to 6 ppb in North America and Europe for the 50% global reduction scenario. In Europe, ozone responses are more sensitive to emission declines in other continents, international shipping and aviation than to emissions changes within Europe. We demonstrate that for wheat the overall magnitude of ozone precursor emission changes could lead to yield improvements between 2% and 8%. The expected magnitude of ozone precursor emission reductions during the Northern Hemisphere growing season in 2020 presents an opportunity to test and improve crop models and experimentally based exposure response relationships of ozone impacts on crops, under real-world conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Air quality, past present and future’.
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