Engineering climate debt: temperature overshoot and peak-shaving as risky subprime mortgage lending
Engineering climate debt: temperature overshoot and peak-shaving as risky subprime mortgage lending
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工程气候债务：温度超调和调峰是高风险的次级抵押贷款
DOI：
10.1080/14693062.2019.1623165
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Hulme Mike
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Asayama Shinichiro;Hulme Mike
尽管2015年《巴黎协定》提出了雄心勃勃的温度目标，但减少全球二氧化碳排放的步伐仍然缓慢。这为气温超调调峰的想法创造了条件，使其成为实现巴黎减排目标的可能策略。一种超调和调峰的情景依赖于投机性太阳辐射管理(SRM)技术与大规模二氧化碳去除(CDR)相结合的“临时”使用。尽管一些人乐观地认为SRM和CDR之间存在战略上的相互依赖，但我们认为，这一战略伴随着“气候债务”升级的风险。我们用债务的逻辑和次级抵押贷款的类比来解释我们的立场。在超调和调峰情景中，CDR和SRM的作用是补偿延迟的减排，使世界陷入双重债务：“排放债务”和“温度债务”。类似地，这可以理解为‘次级抵押贷款’(即大规模CDR)和‘房屋净值信用额度’(即临时SRM)的组合。通过这个类比，我们从2007-2009年美国次贷危机中吸取了一些重要教训。这个类比表明，不能脱离大规模CDR的可行性来评估临时SRM的有效性，超调承诺的失败将导致旷日持久的调峰，掩盖不断上升的气候债务。超调和调峰情景不应被描述为有保障的可行投资，而应被描述为押注于不可靠承诺的高风险投机。掩盖这类情景的风险是朝着气候债务危机升级的陡峭一步。关键的政策见解缓解的缓慢进展增加了将临时SRM与大规模CDR相结合的超调调峰情景的吸引力。按照债务的逻辑，CDR和SRM在此情景中的作用是补偿延迟的缓解，造成二氧化碳排放和全球气温的双重债务使用次级贷款的类比，这一策略可以被视为提供次级抵押贷款和无限制信贷额度的组合，因为临时SRM调峰的成功关键在于大规模CDR，SRM和CDR不应分开讨论
Despite the ambitious temperature goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the pace of reducing global CO2emissions remains sluggish. This creates conditions in which the idea of temperature ‘overshoot and peak-shaving’ is emerging as a possible strategy to meet the Paris goal. An overshoot and peak-shaving scenario rests upon the ‘temporary’ use of speculative solar radiation management (SRM) technologies combined with large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Whilst some view optimistically the strategic interdependence between SRM and CDR, we argue that this strategy comes with a risk of escalating ‘climate debt’. We explain our position using the logic of debt and the analogy of subprime mortgage lending. In overshoot and peak-shaving scenarios, the role of CDR and SRM is to compensate for delayed mitigation, placing the world in a double debt: ‘emissions debt’ and ‘temperature debt’. Analogously, this can be understood as a combination of ‘subprime mortgage’ (i.e. large-scale CDR) and ‘home-equity-line-of-credit’ (i.e. temporary SRM). With this analogy, we draw some important lessons from the 2007–2009 US subprime mortgage crisis. The analogy signals that the efficacy of temporary SRM cannot be evaluated in isolation of the feasibility of large-scale CDR and that the failure of the overshoot promise will lead to prolonged peak-shaving, masking an ever-rising climate debt. Overshoot and peak-shaving scenarios should not be presented as a secured feasible investment, but rather as a high-risk speculation betting on insecure promises. Obscuring the riskiness of such scenarios is a precipitous step towards escalating a climate debt crisis.Key policy insightsThe slow progress of mitigation increases the attraction of an ‘overshoot and peak-shaving’ scenario which combines temporary SRM with large-scale CDRFollowing the logic of debt, the role of CDR and SRM in this scenario is to compensate for delayed mitigation, creating a double debt of CO2emissions and global temperatureUsing the analogy of subprime lending, this strategy can be seen as offering a combination of subprime mortgage and open-ended ‘line-of-credit’Because the ‘success’ of peak-shaving by temporary SRM hinges critically on the overshoot promise of large-scale CDR, SRM and CDR should not be discussed separately
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影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Steven J. Smith;P. Rasch
通讯作者：
P. Rasch
探索负面领域二氧化碳清除和气候政策举措
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
J. Meadowcroft
通讯作者：
J. Meadowcroft
影响因子：
7.1
作者：
Kuramochi, Takeshi;Hoehne, Niklas;Blok, Kornelis
通讯作者：
Blok, Kornelis
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1397607
发表时间：
2009-08
期刊：
ERN: Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models & Savings (Topic)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Atif R. Mian;Amir Sufi
通讯作者：
Atif R. Mian;Amir Sufi
影响因子：
7.1
作者：
Geden, Oliver;Peters, Glen P.;Scott, Vivian
通讯作者：
Scott, Vivian