Reproductive number of coronavirus: A systematic review and meta-analysis based on global level evidence.
Reproductive number of coronavirus: A systematic review and meta-analysis based on global level evidence.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0242128
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Khan MN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Billah MA;Miah MM;Khan MN
冠状病毒（SARS-COV-2）现在是一个全球性的问题，因为它具有更高的传播能力和相关的不良后果，包括死亡。冠状病毒的繁殖数量提供了对传播可能范围的估计。本研究旨在根据现有的全球证据提供冠状病毒的繁殖数量摘要。2020年9月15日共检索了3个数据库：PubMed、Web of Science和Science Direct。检索使用预先指定的检索策略进行，以记录自2019年12月开始报告冠状病毒繁殖数量的研究。它包括冠状病毒及其繁殖数的关键字，使用布尔运算符（AND，OR）组合。基于纳入的研究，我们使用荟萃分析估计了汇总生殖数。我们使用叙述性综合来解释报告了生殖数量的研究结果，但由于缺乏数据（主要是由于未报告置信区间），无法纳入荟萃分析。本次综述共纳入42项研究，其中29项纳入荟萃分析。估计的汇总生殖数为2.87（95% CI，2.39-3.44）。我们发现纳入研究中报告的生殖数量具有非常高的异质性（99.5%）。我们的亚组分析发现，在全国范围内的生殖数量的显着变化，它是估计，方法和模型，用于估计生殖数量，被认为是估计生殖数量的情况下，和类型的生殖数量估计。据报道，日本的钻石公主号游轮的繁殖数量最高（14.8）。在国家层面，法国（R，6.32，95% CI，5.72-6.99）报告的生殖数量高于德国（R，6.07，95% CI，5.51-6.69）和西班牙（R，3.56，95% CI，1.62-7.82）。用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法（MCMC）和流行曲线模型估计繁殖数，其繁殖数较高。我们还报告了显着的异质性的类型的生殖数-一个高值的报告，如果它是时间依赖性的生殖数。估计的繁殖总数表明，在未来几天内，冠状病毒感染将呈指数级增长。全面的政策和方案对于减少新感染以及包括死亡在内的相关不良后果至关重要。
The coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) is now a global concern because of its higher transmission capacity and associated adverse consequences including death. The reproductive number of coronavirus provides an estimate of the possible extent of the transmission. This study aims to provide a summary reproductive number of coronavirus based on available global level evidence. A total of three databases were searched on September 15, 2020: PubMed, Web of Science, and Science Direct. The searches were conducted using a pre-specified search strategy to record studies reported the reproductive number of coronavirus from its inception in December 2019. It includes keywords of coronavirus and its reproductive number, which were combined using the Boolean operators (AND, OR). Based on the included studies, we estimated a summary reproductive number by using the meta-analysis. We used narrative synthesis to explain the results of the studies where the reproductive number was reported, however, were not possible to include in the meta-analysis because of the lack of data (mostly due to confidence interval was not reported). Total of 42 studies included in this review whereas 29 of them were included in the meta-analysis. The estimated summary reproductive number was 2.87 (95% CI, 2.39–3.44). We found evidence of very high heterogeneity (99.5%) of the reproductive number reported in the included studies. Our sub-group analysis was found the significant variations of reproductive number across the country for which it was estimated, method and model that were used to estimate the reproductive number, number of case that was considered to estimate the reproductive number, and the type of reproductive number that was estimated. The highest reproductive number was reported for the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship in Japan (14.8). In the country-level, the higher reproductive number was reported for France (R, 6.32, 95% CI, 5.72–6.99) following Germany (R, 6.07, 95% CI, 5.51–6.69) and Spain (R, 3.56, 95% CI, 1.62–7.82). The higher reproductive number was reported if it was estimated by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) method and the Epidemic curve model. We also reported significant heterogeneity of the type of reproductive number- a high-value reported if it was the time-dependent reproductive number. The estimated summary reproductive number indicates an exponential increase of coronavirus infection in the coming days. Comprehensive policies and programs are important to reduce new infections as well as the associated adverse consequences including death.
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