Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities.
Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0100852
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Russell A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stone B Jr;Vargo J;Liu P;Habeeb D;DeLucia A;Trail M;Hu Y;Russell A
预计到21世纪中后期，美国城市与高温相关的死亡率将增加一倍以上。预计城市热暴露增加的原因是：1)全球大气成分变化造成的气候强迫；2)城市热岛效应的局部地表特征。旨在减少城市热岛效应的热管理策略在多大程度上可以抵消未来与热相关的死亡率，在文献中仍未得到探索。利用耦合的全球和区域气候模型与人类健康影响模型，我们估算了2050年美国三个气候和人口多样性大都市地区（佐治亚州亚特兰大、宾夕法尼亚州费城和亚利桑那州凤凰城）因植被覆盖和地表反照率变化而导致的热相关死亡人数的变化。利用2050年平均暖季和热浪条件下的单独健康影响函数，我们发现植被和反照率增强的组合可以抵消三个大都市地区与热相关的死亡率预计增加的40%至99%。这些结果表明，城市广泛的地表变化有可能为面临气候变化带来的热暴露风险的城市人口提供适应性效益。
Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1) climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2) local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.
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影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Trail, M.;Tsimpidi, A. P.;Russell, A. G.
通讯作者：
Russell, A. G.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Convertino, Matteo;Foran, Christy M.;Keisler, Jeffrey M.;Scarlett, Lynn;LoSchiavo, Andy;Kiker, Gregory A.;Linkov, Igor
通讯作者：
Linkov, Igor
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Anderson GB;Bell ML
通讯作者：
Bell ML
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Liu, P.;Tsimpidi, A. P.;Nenes, A.
通讯作者：
Nenes, A.
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Sheridan, Scott C.;Lee, Cameron C.;Kalkstein, Laurence S.
通讯作者：
Kalkstein, Laurence S.