A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru.
A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0010863
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发表时间：
2022-12
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
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蚊子在人类病原体传播中的重要性促使人们对蚊子生物学进行重大研究，以寻求更有效的媒介控制措施。埃及伊蚊在热带城市地区尤其令人担忧，它是许多黄病毒的主要媒介，包括黄热病、寨卡病毒和登革热病毒。有一个亲人类的习惯，Ae。埃及伊蚊喜欢房屋、人血餐和在装满水的容器中产卵。我们假设这个相对简单的生态位应该允许我们预测杀虫控制措施对蚊子种群的影响。为了做到这一点，我们使用了Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2)，这是一种随机的、空间明确的、机械的Ae模型。埃及伊蚊种群生物学。SB2建立在Skeeter Buster的基础上，它再现了Ae的平衡动力学。秘鲁伊基托斯的埃及伊蚊。我们的目标是通过室内杀虫剂喷洒和广泛的破坏性昆虫调查来预测蚊子种群对扰动的反应，从而验证SB2。为了评估SB2，我们在秘鲁伊基托斯进行了两次实地试验：2013年进行了一次较小的试点研究（S-2013），随后在2014年进行了一次较大的试验（L-2014）。在这里，我们将模型预测与（先前报道的）这些实验的实证结果进行比较。在模拟种群和经验种群中，反复喷洒产生了大量但暂时的成虫密度降低。喷雾的比例效应在模拟和实证结果之间具有广泛的可比性，但我们发现了显著的差异。特别是，SB2持续高估了未生育雌蚊的比例和未成熟蚊子的容器的比例。我们还观察到，相对于相应的经验观察，模拟成人丰度调查的时间变化较小。我们的研究结果表明，存在生态异质性或采样过程，而不是由SB2有效地表示。虽然进一步的实证研究可以进一步提高SB2的准确性和精度，但我们的研究结果强调了非线性动力学在Ae响应中的重要性。埃及伊蚊种群受到扰动，并提出了其种群动态在空间和时间上的细粒度可预测性的一般限制。埃及伊蚊常见于热带城市地区，是几种严重人类病原体的主要媒介，包括黄热病、寨卡病毒和登革热。因此，控制伊蚊。埃及伊蚊是一个紧迫的全球公共卫生问题，特别是在资源匮乏的环境中。以前的工作已经使用生物细节模拟模型（例如，Skeeter Buster）来预测平衡Ae。埃及伊蚊种群在空间和时间上的动态。在这里，我们提出了一个改进的模型，Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2)，其中包括特定位置的采样和喷洒事件。我们使用SB2尽可能接近地模拟了2013年和2014年在秘鲁伊基托斯进行的两次无残留杀虫剂喷洒田间试验。最后，我们批判性地评估了SB2预测Ae非平衡反应的能力。通过比较模拟和经验观察，对埃及伊蚊种群进行媒介控制。总体而言，我们发现喷洒的效果在模拟结果和经验结果之间大致相当，包括控制后的快速恢复。值得注意的是，我们观察到模拟成虫丰度的时间变化小于经验观察。我们的研究结果表明，存在生态异质性和/或采样过程未被SB2捕获，并表明对伊蚊的细粒度可预测性的限制。埃及伊蚊种群在空间和时间上的动态。
The importance of mosquitoes in human pathogen transmission has motivated major research efforts into mosquito biology in pursuit of more effective vector control measures. Aedes aegypti is a particular concern in tropical urban areas, where it is the primary vector of numerous flaviviruses, including the yellow fever, Zika, and dengue viruses. With an anthropophilic habit, Ae. aegypti prefers houses, human blood meals, and ovipositioning in water-filled containers. We hypothesized that this relatively simple ecological niche should allow us to predict the impacts of insecticidal control measures on mosquito populations. To do this, we use Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2), a stochastic, spatially explicit, mechanistic model of Ae. aegypti population biology. SB2 builds on Skeeter Buster, which reproduced equilibrium dynamics of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos, Peru. Our goal was to validate SB2 by predicting the response of mosquito populations to perturbations by indoor insecticidal spraying and widespread destructive insect surveys. To evaluate SB2, we conducted two field experiments in Iquitos, Peru: a smaller pilot study in 2013 (S-2013) followed by a larger experiment in 2014 (L-2014). Here, we compare model predictions with (previously reported) empirical results from these experiments. In both simulated and empirical populations, repeated spraying yielded substantial yet temporary reductions in adult densities. The proportional effects of spraying were broadly comparable between simulated and empirical results, but we found noteworthy differences. In particular, SB2 consistently over-estimated the proportion of nulliparous females and the proportion of containers holding immature mosquitoes. We also observed less temporal variation in simulated surveys of adult abundance relative to corresponding empirical observations. Our results indicate the presence of ecological heterogeneities or sampling processes not effectively represented by SB2. Although additional empirical research could further improve the accuracy and precision of SB2, our results underscore the importance of non-linear dynamics in the response of Ae. aegypti populations to perturbations, and suggest general limits to the fine-grained predictability of its population dynamics over space and time. Aedes aegypti is commonly found in tropical urban areas, and is the primary vector of several serious human pathogens, including yellow fever, Zika, and dengue. As such, control of Ae. aegypti presents a pressing global public health concern, particularly in low-resource settings. Previous work has used biologically-detailed simulation models (e.g., Skeeter Buster) to predict equilibrium Ae. aegypti population dynamics over space and time. Here we present an improved model, Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2), that includes location-specific sampling and spraying events. We use SB2 to simulate, as closely as possible, two field trials of non-residual insecticidal spraying in Iquitos, Peru during 2013 and 2014. Finally, we critically assess SB2’s ability to predict non-equilibrium responses of Ae. aegypti populations to vector control efforts by comparing simulations and empirical observations. Overall, we found that the effects of spraying were broadly comparable between simulated and empirical results, including rapid post-control recovery. Notably, we observed less temporal variation in simulated adult abundance than in empirical observations. Our results indicate the presence of ecological heterogeneities and/or sampling processes not captured by SB2, and suggest limits to the fine-grained predictability of Ae. aegypti population dynamics over space and time.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Hugo LE;Jeffery JA;Trewin BJ;Wockner LF;Nguyen TY;Nguyen HL;Nghia le T;Hine E;Ryan PA;Kay BH
通讯作者：
Kay BH
DOI：
10.1590/s1678-9946201860044
发表时间：
2018-08-20
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Garcia-Rejon JE;Ulloa-Garcia A;Cigarroa-Toledo N;Pech-May A;Machain-Williams C;Cetina-Trejo RC;Talavera-Aguilar LG;Torres-Chable OM;Navarro JC;Baak-Baak CM
通讯作者：
Baak-Baak CM
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Achee NL;Gould F;Perkins TA;Reiner RC Jr;Morrison AC;Ritchie SA;Gubler DJ;Teyssou R;Scott TW
通讯作者：
Scott TW
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Joy, Teresa K.;Gutierrez, Eileen H. Jeffrey;Riehle, Michael A.
通讯作者：
Riehle, Michael A.
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
FOCKS, DA;HAILE, DG;MOUNT, GA
通讯作者：
MOUNT, GA