Thirty years of prospective nationwide incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes: the accelerating increase by time tends to level off in Sweden.
Thirty years of prospective nationwide incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes: the accelerating increase by time tends to level off in Sweden.
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DOI：
10.2337/db10-0813
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发表时间：
2011-02
期刊：
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Swedish Childhood Diabetes Study Group
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berhan Y;Waernbaum I;Lind T;Möllsten A;Dahlquist G;Swedish Childhood Diabetes Study Group
在过去的几十年里，世界上许多地区的儿童1型糖尿病(T1D)的发病率迅速上升。随着时间的推移，这种变化的部分原因是生活方式的变化导致了快速的早期生长和体重发育。目前的研究在一个特别大的研究小组中按年龄、性别和出生队列建立模型并分析时间趋势。目前的分析涉及1978年至2007年瑞典全国儿童糖尿病登记处记录的14,721例起病时间为0-14.9岁的T1D病例。使用广义加性模型对数据进行分析。年龄和性别的发病率从1978-1980年的21.6(95%可信区间19.4-23.9)到2005-2007年的43.9(95%可信区间40.7-47.3)不等。在最初的22年中，出生队列的累积发病率在发病时向更年轻的年龄转移，但从2000年出生起，出现了统计上显著的逆转趋势(P<；0.01)。儿童时期的T1D显著增加，并在研究的前22年开始向更年轻的年龄转变。我们报告了一个相反的趋势，从2000年开始，表明影响年幼儿童的非遗传风险因素发生了变化。
During the past few decades, a rapidly increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes (T1D) has been reported from many parts of the world. The change over time has been partly explained by changes in lifestyle causing rapid early growth and weight development. The current study models and analyzes the time trend by age, sex, and birth cohort in an exceptionally large study group. The present analysis involved 14,721 incident cases of T1D with an onset of 0–14.9 years that were recorded in the nationwide Swedish Childhood Diabetes Registry from 1978 to 2007. Data were analyzed using generalized additive models. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates varied from 21.6 (95% CI 19.4–23.9) during 1978–1980 to 43.9 (95% CI 40.7–47.3) during 2005–2007. Cumulative incidence by birth cohort shifted to a younger age at onset during the first 22 years, but from the birth year 2000 a statistically significant reversed trend (P < 0.01) was seen. Childhood T1D increased dramatically and shifted to a younger age at onset the first 22 years of the study period. We report a reversed trend, starting in 2000, indicating a change in nongenetic risk factors affecting specifically young children.
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