The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model.
The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ssmph.2020.100651
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发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Smith RD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keogh-Brown MR;Jensen HT;Edmunds WJ;Smith RD
我们估计了COVID-19对英国经济的潜在影响，包括直接疾病影响、预防性公共行动和相关政策。将一个部门的全经济宏观经济模型与一个人口范围的流行病学人口模型联系起来，以评估COVID-19的潜在宏观经济影响，以及通过家庭隔离、关闭学校、保持社交距离和随之而来的企业关闭来缓解或抑制大流行的政策。我们的模拟表明，假设临床发病率为48%，病死率为1.5%，仅COVID-19就会给英国经济带来396亿英镑（占GDP的1.73%）的直接健康相关经济负担。实施12周的缓解策略可使病例死亡人数减少29%，但经济总成本为3080亿英镑（占GDP的13.5%）；其中660亿英镑（占GDP的2.9%）可归因于学校关闭期间在职父母的劳动力损失，2010亿英镑（占GDP的8.8%）可归因于企业关闭。长期抑制疫情可能会使死亡人数减少95%，但英国经济的总成本也会增加到6680亿英镑（占GDP的29.2%），其中1660亿英镑（占GDP的7.3%）归因于学校关闭，5020亿英镑（占GDP的21.9%）归因于企业关闭。我们的分析表明，Covid-19有可能给英国经济带来前所未有的经济成本，虽然公共行动对于最大限度地降低死亡率是必要的，但学校和企业关闭的持续时间是决定经济成本的关键。英国政府最初承诺的经济支持方案可能与缓解Covid-19的成本成比例，但如果没有减少学校和企业关闭的规模和持续时间的替代措施，经济支持可能不足以弥补长期抑制大流行的成本，这可能会通过重大衰退对健康产生更大的影响。2020年，2019冠状病毒病对健康相关经济的影响可能会使英国经济损失400亿英镑。预防性缓解/抑制行动将造成前所未有的经济损失。尽量减少企业关闭的持续时间是防止灾难性成本的关键。
We estimate the potential impact of COVID-19 on the United Kingdom economy, including direct disease effects, preventive public actions and associated policies. A sectoral, whole-economy macroeconomic model was linked to a population-wide epidemiological demographic model to assess the potential macroeconomic impact of COVID-19, together with policies to mitigate or suppress the pandemic by means of home quarantine, school closures, social distancing and accompanying business closures. Our simulations indicate that, assuming a clinical attack rate of 48% and a case fatality ratio of 1.5%, COVID-19 alone would impose a direct health-related economic burden of £39.6bn (1.73% of GDP) on the UK economy. Mitigation strategies imposed for 12 weeks reduce case fatalities by 29%, but the total cost to the economy is £308bn (13.5% of GDP); £66bn (2.9% of GDP) of which is attributable to labour lost from working parents during school closures, and £201bn (8.8% of GDP) of which is attributable to business closures. Suppressing the pandemic over a longer period of time may reduce deaths by 95%, but the total cost to the UK economy also increases to £668bn (29.2% of GDP), where £166bn (7.3% of GDP) is attributable to school closures and 502bn (21.9% of GDP) to business closures. Our analyses suggest Covid-19 has the potential to impose unprecedented economic costs on the UK economy, and whilst public actions are necessary to minimise mortality, the duration of school and business closures are key to determining the economic cost. The initial economic support package promised by the UK government may be proportionate to the costs of mitigating Covid-19, but without alternative measures to reduce the scale and duration of school and business closures, the economic support may be insufficient to compensate for longer term suppression of the pandemic which could generate an even greater health impact through major recession. Health-related economic impacts from Covid-19 may cost the UK economy £40bn in 2020. Preventative mitigation/suppression actions will impose unprecedented economic losses. Minimising the duration of business closures is key to preventing catastrophic costs.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.b4571
发表时间：
2009-11-19
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Smith RD;Keogh-Brown MR;Barnett T;Tait J
通讯作者：
Tait J
DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2011.05.025
发表时间：
2011-07
期刊：
Social science & medicine (1982)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Smith RD;Keogh-Brown MR;Barnett T
通讯作者：
Barnett T
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Beutels, P.;Edmunds, W. J.;Smith, R. D.
通讯作者：
Smith, R. D.
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Keogh-Brown, Marcus R.;Wren-Lewis, Simon;Smith, Richard D.
通讯作者：
Smith, Richard D.
影响因子：
9.7
作者：
McKibbin, Warwick;Fernando, Roshen
通讯作者：
Fernando, Roshen