Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal.
Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal.
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尼泊尔香蕉和咖啡产区的适宜性分析和预计气候变化影响
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0163916
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Zomer RJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ranjitkar S;Sujakhu NM;Merz J;Kindt R;Xu J;Matin MA;Ali M;Zomer RJ
尼泊尔政府已经确定了农业商业化的机会，以应对不断增长的内部需求和扩大出口市场，以减少巨大的贸易赤字。最近批准的农业发展战略确定了咖啡和香蕉等几种经济作物。这两种作物都鼓励小农将他们的自给农业做法转变为更加商业化的种植。确定合适的农业生态区和了解气候相关问题对于改善小农的生产和生计非常重要。在这里，以全球环境分层（GEnS）为代表，分析了咖啡和香蕉作物对不同农业生态区的适宜性。还预测了这些适宜区域的未来变化。尼泊尔的种植园地点进行了地理参考，并用作物种分布模型的输入。多模型集成模型表明，从现在到 2050 年，在选定的排放情景中，气候变化将使咖啡的适宜种植面积减少约 72%。对香蕉种植的影响很小，到 2050 年，适宜性将减少约 16%。在气候变化的背景下，香蕉作为一种可持续作物，在尼泊尔发挥着重要作用，因为这项研究表明，到 2050 年，适合香蕉种植的面积将增加 40%。 2050。根据我们的分析，我们推荐咖啡种植园的可能新地点以及一种缓解现有种植园气候变化相关问题的方法。这些发现预计将支持缓解规划和政策对话，并支持与这两种作物有关的更明智和科学的决策。
The Government of Nepal has identified opportunities in agricultural commercialization, responding to a growing internal demand and expansion of export markets to reduce the immense trade deficit. Several cash crops, including coffee and bananas, have been identified in the recently approved Agriculture Development Strategy. Both of these crops have encouraged smallholder farmers to convert their subsistence farming practices to more commercial cultivation. Identification of suitable agro-ecological zones and understanding climate-related issues are important for improved production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Here, the suitability of coffee and banana crops is analyzed for different agro-ecological zones represented by Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS). Future shifts in these suitability zones are also predicted. Plantation sites in Nepal were geo-referenced and used as input in species distribution modelling. The multi-model ensemble model suggests that climate change will reduce the suitable growing area for coffee by about 72% across the selected emission scenarios from now to 2050. Impacts are low for banana growing, with a reduction in suitability by about 16% by 2050. Bananas show a lot of potential for playing an important role in Nepal as a sustainable crop in the context of climate change, as this study indicates that the amount of area suited to banana growing will grow by 40% by 2050. Based on our analysis we recommend possible new locations for coffee plantations and one method for mitigating climate change-related problems on existing plantations. These findings are expected to support planning and policy dialogue for mitigation and support better informed and scientifically based decision-making relating to these two crops.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0701890104
发表时间：
2007-12-11
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Howden, S. Mark;Soussana, Jean-Francois;Meinke, Holger
通讯作者：
Meinke, Holger
DOI：
10.1016/s0959-3780(02)00090-0
发表时间：
2003-04-01
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Jones, PG;Thornton, PK
通讯作者：
Thornton, PK
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0604882103
发表时间：
2006-08-29
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Hu, Honghong;Dai, Mingqiu;Xiong, Lizhong
通讯作者：
Xiong, Lizhong
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2005.1744
发表时间：
2005-11-29
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Fischer, G;Shah, M;van Velhuizen, H
通讯作者：
van Velhuizen, H
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Iglesias, Ana;Quiroga, Sonia;Diz, Agustin
通讯作者：
Diz, Agustin