Drivers and potential distribution of anthrax occurrence and incidence at national and sub-county levels across Kenya from 2006 to 2020 using INLA.
Drivers and potential distribution of anthrax occurrence and incidence at national and sub-county levels across Kenya from 2006 to 2020 using INLA.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-022-24589-5
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发表时间：
2022-11-22
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Wood, James L. N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ndolo, Valentina A.;Redding, David William;Lekolool, Isaac;Mwangangi, David Mumo;Odhiambo, David Onyango;Deka, Mark A.;Conlan, Andrew J. K.;Wood, James L. N.
炭疽是由炭疽芽孢杆菌引起的，这是一种由土壤传播的细菌，会感染食草动物。肯尼亚报告的牲畜炭疽病例自2005年以来急剧增加，只有12%的次县（肯尼亚县政府用来促进服务提供的分散行政单位）占牲畜病例的近三分之一。最近对肯尼亚各地炭疽芽胞杆菌适宜性的空间范围的研究使用了无法捕捉监测数据中潜在的空间和时间依赖性的方法。为了解决这些限制，我们使用R-INLA应用第一种贝叶斯方法来分析2006年至2020年在肯尼亚收集的牲畜炭疽病例数据的长期数据集。我们开发了一个空间和时空模型来调查炭疽发生和发病率的分布和社会经济驱动因素。空间模型对基于地理的交叉验证具有鲁棒性，对保留数据的敏感性为75% （95% CI 65-75）。令人担忧的是，空间模型预测炭疽热在北部县（图尔卡纳、桑布鲁和马萨比特）的高强度，这些县由牧民组成，他们往往在经济和政治上被边缘化，并且极易感染炭疽热。结果表明，畜禽炭疽病风险与人口总数和外来奶牛数量呈正相关，与人口密度、畜禽养殖户和农业用地面积呈负相关。旨在减少人与动物接触、改善获得医疗保健和提高炭疽意识的公共卫生项目应优先考虑这些流行地区。
Anthrax is caused by, Bacillus anthracis, a soil-borne bacterium that infects grazing animals. Kenya reported a sharp increase in livestock anthrax cases from 2005, with only 12% of the sub-counties (decentralised administrative units used by Kenyan county governments to facilitate service provision) accounting for almost a third of the livestock cases. Recent studies of the spatial extent of B. anthracis suitability across Kenya have used approaches that cannot capture the underlying spatial and temporal dependencies in the surveillance data. To address these limitations, we apply the first Bayesian approach using R-INLA to analyse a long-term dataset of livestock anthrax case data, collected from 2006 to 2020 in Kenya. We develop a spatial and a spatiotemporal model to investigate the distribution and socio-economic drivers of anthrax occurrence and incidence at the national and sub-county level. The spatial model was robust to geographically based cross validation and had a sensitivity of 75% (95% CI 65–75) against withheld data. Alarmingly, the spatial model predicted high intensity of anthrax across the Northern counties (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) comprising pastoralists who are often economically and politically marginalized, and highly predisposed to a greater risk of anthrax. The spatiotemporal model showed a positive link between livestock anthrax risk and the total human population and the number of exotic dairy cattle, and a negative association with the human population density, livestock producing households, and agricultural land area. Public health programs aimed at reducing human-animal contact, improving access to healthcare, and increasing anthrax awareness, should prioritize these endemic regions.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Barro AS;Fegan M;Moloney B;Porter K;Muller J;Warner S;Blackburn JK
通讯作者：
Blackburn JK
影响因子：
28.3
作者：
Carlson, Colin J.;Kracalik, Ian T.;Blackburn, Jason K.
通讯作者：
Blackburn, Jason K.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Otieno FT;Gachohi J;Gikuma-Njuru P;Kariuki P;Oyas H;Canfield SA;Blackburn JK;Njenga MK;Bett B
通讯作者：
Bett B
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Mullins JC;Garofolo G;Van Ert M;Fasanella A;Lukhnova L;Hugh-Jones ME;Blackburn JK
通讯作者：
Blackburn JK
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Banerjee, Dibyendu;Chakraborty, Baishali;Chakraborty, Banya
通讯作者：
Chakraborty, Banya