Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE.
Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1703568114
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发表时间：
2017-11-07
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Pollard D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Garner AJ;Mann ME;Emanuel KA;Kopp RE;Lin N;Alley RB;Horton BP;DeConto RM;Donnelly JP;Pollard D
我们结合缩小规模的热带气旋、风暴潮模型和海平面上升概率预测来评估从工业化前时代到 2300 年纽约市与风暴特征变化和海平面上升相关的洪水灾害。风暴强度增加和风暴路径离岸移动之间的补偿导致模型风暴潮高度在 2300 年之前变化很小。然而，预测的海平面上升会导致未来总体洪水灾害大幅增加。 纽约市与热带气旋相关的洪水高度。因此，洪水高度重现期从前工业时代的约 500 年降至目前的约 25 年，预计在未来三十年内将降至约 5 年。纽约市的洪水灾害取决于风暴潮和海平面上升。我们将模拟风暴潮与海平面上升概率预测相结合，评估从前工业时代到公元 2300 年纽约市未来的沿海洪水。风暴潮源自大型合成热带气旋，是根据三个 CMIP5 模型的 RCP8.5 模拟缩小的。在评估未来沿海洪水时，海平面上升预测考虑了南极冰盖可能部分塌陷的情况。 CMIP5 模型表明，从 2010 年到 2100 年或 2300 年，风暴潮高度的变化很小，因为预计最强风暴的加强将通过在纽约市纬度向近海移动的风暴路径来补偿。然而，预计海平面上升将导致未来几个世纪纽约市与热带气旋相关的总体洪水高度与工业化前或现代洪水高度相比大幅增加。对于我们考虑的各种海平面上升情景，500年一遇的洪水事件从1970-2005年平均潮位以上3.4 m增加到2080-2100年平均潮位以上4.0-5.1 m，到2280-2300年平均潮位以上5.0-15.4 m。此外，我们发现，在我们的 95% 的模拟中，2.25 米洪水的重现期已从 1800 年之前的约 500 年减少到 1970-2005 年期间的约 25 年，到 2030-2045 年进一步减少到约 5 年。对于包括南极洲可能部分塌陷在内的情况，2280-2300 年洪水高度将永久超过 2.25 米。
We combine downscaled tropical cyclones, storm-surge models, and probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess flood hazard associated with changing storm characteristics and sea-level rise in New York City from the preindustrial era to 2300. Compensation between increased storm intensity and offshore shifts in storm tracks causes minimal change in modeled storm-surge heights through 2300. However, projected sea-level rise leads to large increases in future overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City. Consequently, flood height return periods that were ∼500 y during the preindustrial era have fallen to ∼25 y at present and are projected to fall to ∼5 y within the next three decades. The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse.
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影响因子：
64.8
作者：
DeConto, Robert M.;Pollard, David
通讯作者：
Pollard, David
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Baldini LM;Baldini JU;McElwaine JN;Frappier AB;Asmerom Y;Liu KB;Prufer KM;Ridley HE;Polyak V;Kennett DJ;Macpherson CG;Aquino VV;Awe J;Breitenbach SF
通讯作者：
Breitenbach SF
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Bamber, J. L.;Aspinall, W. P.
通讯作者：
Aspinall, W. P.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Haarsma, Reindert J.;Selten, Frank M.;Drijfhout, Sybren S.
通讯作者：
Drijfhout, Sybren S.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Hall, Timothy;Yonekura, Emmi
通讯作者：
Yonekura, Emmi