Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Model. I. Refining the parameter settings and mathematical formulation of basic processes based on a literature review.
Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Model. I. Refining the parameter settings and mathematical formulation of basic processes based on a literature review.
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DOI：
10.1186/1475-2875-10-35
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发表时间：
2011-02-11
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Morse AP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ermert V;Fink AH;Jones AE;Morse AP
温暖潮湿的气候会引发疟疾等几种与水有关的疾病。因此，气候或天气驱动的疟疾模型可以更好地了解疟疾传播动态。利物浦疟疾模型（LMM）是利用每日温度和降水数据的疟疾寄生虫动力学的数学-生物学模型。在本研究中，对LMM的参数设置进行了改进，并提出了与媒介种群生长和规模相关的关键过程的新数学公式。就从文献中收集昆虫学和寄生虫学信息而言，迄今为止最全面的研究之一是为开发现有疟疾模型的新版本而进行的。需要这些知识来证明各种模型参数的新设置和LMM数学公式的动机变化。本研究的第一部分开发了一套改进的参数设置和LMM的数学公式。为了达到更高的生物和物理精度，对原始LMM版本的重要模块进行了增强。应用模糊分布模型，根据现场情况调整幼蚊产卵和成活率。通过昆虫学和寄生虫学观察，重新评估了蚊龄、成蚊存活率、人血指数、人蚊传播效率、人感染年龄、恢复率和配子细胞流行率等关键模型参数。本文还揭示了各种疟疾变量缺乏来自实地研究的信息，无法在疟疾建模方法中适当设置。由于模型参数众多和参数设置的不确定性，进行了广泛的文献调查，以产生各种模型参数的精细化设置集。这种方法限制了模型参数空间的自由度，简化了待定参数的最终校准（参见本研究的第二部分）。此外，重要过程的新数学公式在矢量种群的增长方面改进了模型。
A warm and humid climate triggers several water-associated diseases such as malaria. Climate- or weather-driven malaria models, therefore, allow for a better understanding of malaria transmission dynamics. The Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) is a mathematical-biological model of malaria parasite dynamics using daily temperature and precipitation data. In this study, the parameter settings of the LMM are refined and a new mathematical formulation of key processes related to the growth and size of the vector population are developed. One of the most comprehensive studies to date in terms of gathering entomological and parasitological information from the literature was undertaken for the development of a new version of an existing malaria model. The knowledge was needed to allow the justification of new settings of various model parameters and motivated changes of the mathematical formulation of the LMM. The first part of the present study developed an improved set of parameter settings and mathematical formulation of the LMM. Important modules of the original LMM version were enhanced in order to achieve a higher biological and physical accuracy. The oviposition as well as the survival of immature mosquitoes were adjusted to field conditions via the application of a fuzzy distribution model. Key model parameters, including the mature age of mosquitoes, the survival probability of adult mosquitoes, the human blood index, the mosquito-to-human (human-to-mosquito) transmission efficiency, the human infectious age, the recovery rate, as well as the gametocyte prevalence, were reassessed by means of entomological and parasitological observations. This paper also revealed that various malaria variables lack information from field studies to be set properly in a malaria modelling approach. Due to the multitude of model parameters and the uncertainty involved in the setting of parameters, an extensive literature survey was carried out, in order to produce a refined set of settings of various model parameters. This approach limits the degrees of freedom of the parameter space of the model, simplifying the final calibration of undetermined parameters (see the second part of this study). In addition, new mathematical formulations of important processes have improved the model in terms of the growth of the vector population.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trstmh.2003.11.005
发表时间：
2004-07-01
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Balls, MJ;Bodker, R;Lindsay, SW
通讯作者：
Lindsay, SW
影响因子：
3
作者：
Depinay, JMO;Mbogo, CM;McKenzie, FE
通讯作者：
McKenzie, FE
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
CLEMENTS, AN;PATERSON, GD
通讯作者：
PATERSON, GD
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Chalvet-Monfray, Karine;Sabatier, Philippe;Bicout, Dominique J.
通讯作者：
Bicout, Dominique J.
DOI：
10.4269/tropmed.1999.61-044
发表时间：
1999-07-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Collins, WE;Jeffery, GM
通讯作者：
Jeffery, GM