Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.
Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3
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发表时间：
2018-10
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Gasparrini A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vicedo-Cabrera AM;Guo Y;Sera F;Huber V;Schleussner CF;Mitchell D;Tong S;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Saldiva PHN;Lavigne E;Correa PM;Ortega NV;Kan H;Osorio S;Kyselý J;Urban A;Jaakkola JJK;Ryti NRI;Pascal M;Goodman PG;Zeka A;Michelozzi P;Scortichini M;Hashizume M;Honda Y;Hurtado-Diaz M;Cruz J;Seposo X;Kim H;Tobias A;Íñiguez C;Forsberg B;Åström DO;Ragettli MS;Röösli M;Guo YL;Wu CF;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Bell ML;Dang TN;Van DD;Heaviside C;Vardoulakis S;Hajat S;Haines A;Armstrong B;Ebi KL;Gasparrini A
《巴黎协定》约束所有国家采取雄心勃勃的努力应对气候变化，承诺“将全球平均气温（GMT）相对于工业化前水平的升温控制在2 °C以下，并努力将升温限制在1.5 °C”。1.5 °C的限制是一个雄心勃勃的目标，更多关于其对健康益处的证据将有助于指导政策并可能增加行动的动力。在这里，我们通过评估与温度相关的死亡率降低方面的潜在健康益处来弥补这一差距，这些益处来自于与更极端的变暖情景相比，遵守商定的温度目标。我们在23个不同气候带的国家的451个地点进行了多区域分析，并在符合巴黎协定目标（1.5和2 °C）和更极端的GMT增加（3和4 °C）的情况下评估了与热和寒冷相关的死亡率变化，并假设人口分布和脆弱性没有变化。我们的研究结果表明，将升温限制在2 °C以下可以防止全球大多数地区与温度相关的死亡率大幅增加。1.5 °C和2 °C之间的比较更为复杂，其特点是不确定性更高，地理差异表明，潜在的好处仅限于气候较温暖的地区，那里的直接气候变化影响将更明显。本文的在线版本（10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible. The online version of this article (10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(14)62114-0
发表时间：
2015-07-25
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gasparrini A;Guo Y;Hashizume M;Lavigne E;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Tobias A;Tong S;Rocklöv J;Forsberg B;Leone M;De Sario M;Bell ML;Guo YL;Wu CF;Kan H;Yi SM;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Saldiva PH;Honda Y;Kim H;Armstrong B
通讯作者：
Armstrong B
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Wang Y;Shi L;Zanobetti A;Schwartz JD
通讯作者：
Schwartz JD
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Russo, Simone;Marchese, Andrea F.;Imme, Giuseppina
通讯作者：
Imme, Giuseppina
影响因子：
9.2
作者：
James, Rachel;Washington, Richard;Conway, Declan
通讯作者：
Conway, Declan
DOI：
10.1016/s2542-5196(17)30156-0
发表时间：
2017-12
期刊：
The Lancet. Planetary health
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gasparrini A;Guo Y;Sera F;Vicedo-Cabrera AM;Huber V;Tong S;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Nascimento Saldiva PH;Lavigne E;Matus Correa P;Valdes Ortega N;Kan H;Osorio S;Kyselý J;Urban A;Jaakkola JJK;Ryti NRI;Pascal M;Goodman PG;Zeka A;Michelozzi P;Scortichini M;Hashizume M;Honda Y;Hurtado-Diaz M;Cesar Cruz J;Seposo X;Kim H;Tobias A;Iñiguez C;Forsberg B;Åström DO;Ragettli MS;Guo YL;Wu CF;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Bell ML;Dang TN;Van DD;Heaviside C;Vardoulakis S;Hajat S;Haines A;Armstrong B
通讯作者：
Armstrong B