City size and the spreading of COVID-19 in Brazil.
City size and the spreading of COVID-19 in Brazil.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0239699
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Hanley QS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ribeiro HV;Sunahara AS;Sutton J;Perc M;Hanley QS
目前爆发的2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）是一个前所未有的例子，表明传染病在地球仪（特别是在城市地区）传播的速度有多快，以及它对公共卫生和社会经济活动造成的巨大影响。尽管近期有关COVID-19大流行不同方面的调查激增，但我们对城市规模对城市地区这种疾病传播的影响仍然知之甚少。在这里，我们调查了COVID-19的病例和死亡人数如何与巴西城市的人口规模相关。我们的研究结果表明，在疾病最初传播期间，小城镇受COVID-19影响的比例更大，因此人均累计病例数和死亡人数最初随着人口规模而减少。然而，在大流行的长期过程中，这种城市优势消失了，大城市开始显示出更高的病例和死亡发生率，因此，自最初的两例每日死亡病例以来，人口每增加1%，人均死亡人数在大约四个月后增加0.14%。我们认为，这些模式可能与大城市中存在的按比例更多的卫生基础设施和大城市地区老年人比例较低有关。我们还发现，大城市的病例和死亡的初始增长率较高;然而，随着时间的推移，这些增长率在大城市趋于下降，在小城市则趋于上升。
The current outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an unprecedented example of how fast an infectious disease can spread around the globe (especially in urban areas) and the enormous impact it causes on public health and socio-economic activities. Despite the recent surge of investigations about different aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we still know little about the effects of city size on the propagation of this disease in urban areas. Here we investigate how the number of cases and deaths by COVID-19 scale with the population of Brazilian cities. Our results indicate small towns are proportionally more affected by COVID-19 during the initial spread of the disease, such that the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths per capita initially decrease with population size. However, during the long-term course of the pandemic, this urban advantage vanishes and large cities start to exhibit higher incidence of cases and deaths, such that every 1% rise in population is associated with a 0.14% increase in the number of fatalities per capita after about four months since the first two daily deaths. We argue that these patterns may be related to the existence of proportionally more health infrastructure in the largest cities and a lower proportion of older adults in large urban areas. We also find the initial growth rate of cases and deaths to be higher in large cities; however, these growth rates tend to decrease in large cities and to increase in small ones over time.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Bettencourt, Luis M. A.
通讯作者：
Bettencourt, Luis M. A.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2004064117
发表时间：
2020-04-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Moghadas, Seyed M.;Shoukat, Affan;Galvani, Alison P.
通讯作者：
Galvani, Alison P.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Antonio FJ;de Picoli S Jr;Teixeira JJ;Mendes Rdos S
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Mendes Rdos S
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Melo, Hygor Piaget M.;Moreira, Andre A.;Andrade, Jose S., Jr.
通讯作者：
Andrade, Jose S., Jr.
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Jones KE;Patel NG;Levy MA;Storeygard A;Balk D;Gittleman JL;Daszak P
通讯作者：
Daszak P