The EV revolution: The road ahead for critical raw materials demand.
The EV revolution: The road ahead for critical raw materials demand.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115072
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发表时间：
2020-12-15
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Nguyen-Tien V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones B;Elliott RJR;Nguyen-Tien V
电动汽车（EV）的大规模采用预计在未来几年。CoMIT框架模拟了电动汽车采用对关键材料需求的影响。到2030年，相对于2015年，锂和钴的需求将增长18倍和37倍。预计中国将成为电动汽车制造投入的重要买家。如果不改变供应链，电动汽车的广泛部署将受到限制。预计未来几年电动汽车（EV）的大规模采用将主要受到政策激励、收入增加和技术进步的推动。然而，大规模采用取决于促进这种转变所需的原材料的可用性和可负担性。材料短缺的影响目前还没有得到很好的理解，以前的研究往往受到技术变革代表性不足，缺乏区域分类，假设和驱动因素往往不灵活和不透明，以及未能将见解置于原材料行业的更广泛背景下的限制。本文提出了一个CoMIT（成本、宏观、基础设施、技术）模型，可用于分析大规模电动汽车采用对关键原材料需求的影响，并预测到2030年，汽车需求将增长27.4%，其中13.3%将是电动汽车。该模型还预测，对某些贱金属的需求将大幅增加，其中钴和锂的需求将分别增长37倍和18倍（相对于2015年的水平）。如果某些技术没有重大变化，钴和锂供应链可能会严重限制电动汽车的广泛部署。预计铜、Chrome和铝的需求也将大幅增加。调查结果还凸显了中国在推动电动汽车需求方面的重要性，以及生产电动汽车所需的关键材料。
The mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected in the years ahead. The CoMIT framework models the impact of EV adoption of critical materials demand. By 2030, relative to 2015, demand for lithium and cobalt will increase 18 and 37 times. China is expected to be an increasing important buyer of inputs to EV manufacturing. Without changes to supply chains the widespread deployment of EV will be constrained. Mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is anticipated in the years ahead, driven primarily by policy incentives, rising incomes, and technological advancements. However, mass adoption is predicated on the availability and affordability of the raw materials required to facilitate this transformation. The implications of material shortages are currently not well understood and previous research tends to be limited by weak representation of technological change, a lack of regional disaggregation, often inflexible and opaque assumptions and drivers, and a failure to place insights in the broader context of the raw materials industries. This paper proposes a CoMIT (Cost, Macro, Infrastructure, Technology) model that can be used to analyse the impact of mass EV adoption on critical raw materials demand and forecasts that, by 2030, demand for vehicles will increase by 27.4%, of which 13.3% will be EVs. The model also predicts large increases in demand for certain base metals, including a 37 and 18-fold increase in demand for cobalt and lithium (relative to 2015 levels), respectively. Without major changes in certain technologies, the cobalt and lithium supply chains could seriously constrain the widespread deployment of EVs. Significant demand increases are also predicted for copper, chrome and aluminium. The results also highlight the importance of China in driving demand for EVs and the critical materials needed to produce them.
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