A predictive model relating daily fluctuations in summer temperatures and mortality rates.
A predictive model relating daily fluctuations in summer temperatures and mortality rates.
复制标题
夏季温度和死亡率中每日波动的预测模型。
DOI：
10.1186/1471-2458-7-114
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发表时间：
2007-06-19
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Hémon D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fouillet A;Rey G;Jougla E;Frayssinet P;Bessemoulin P;Hémon D
在气候变化的背景下，有必要建立一个有效的警报系统，以防止与夏季高温有关的风险。作者的目标是描述法国29年来的温度-死亡率关系，并定义和验证温度因素的组合，从而能够最佳地预测夏季死亡率的每日波动。该研究涉及1975年至2003年期间法国55岁以上受试者的每日死亡率。日最低和最高温度由97个气象站记录的平均值组成。对于每一天，定义了前10天最高温度的累积变量。死亡率建模使用泊松回归过度分散和一阶自回归结构，并控制长期和夏季内的季节性趋势。温度的滞后效应通过包括前5天来解释。一种“向后”的方法被用来选择最重要的气候变量。通过比较验证期（2003年夏季）观察到的和预测的每日死亡率来评估模型的预测性能，验证期与用于估计模型的校准期（1975-2002年）不同。温度指示器解释了总过度分散的76%。死亡率的每日波动的大部分被解释的最低和最高温度之间的相互作用，为一天的T和前一天。在极端事件期间的死亡率的预测大大提高了包括最高温度的累积变量，在相互作用与最高温度。在最终模型中，观察到的死亡率与估计的死亡率之间的相关性为0.88。虽然法国是一个大的国家，在死亡率和温度的地理异质性，死亡率和夏季温度在全国范围内的每日波动之间的强相关性进行了观察。该模型提供了一个令人满意的定量预测的日死亡率与平时的温度和天在激烈的热事件。这些结果可能有助于加强强热浪的警报系统。
In the context of climate change, an efficient alert system to prevent the risk associated with summer heat is necessary. The authors' objective was to describe the temperature-mortality relationship in France over a 29-year period and to define and validate a combination of temperature factors enabling optimum prediction of the daily fluctuations in summer mortality. The study addressed the daily mortality rates of subjects aged over 55 years, in France as a whole, from 1975 to 2003. The daily minimum and maximum temperatures consisted in the average values recorded by 97 meteorological stations. For each day, a cumulative variable for the maximum temperature over the preceding 10 days was defined. The mortality rate was modelled using a Poisson regression with over-dispersion and a first-order autoregressive structure and with control for long-term and within-summer seasonal trends. The lag effects of temperature were accounted for by including the preceding 5 days. A "backward" method was used to select the most significant climatic variables. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by comparing the observed and predicted daily mortality rates on a validation period (summer 2003), which was distinct from the calibration period (1975–2002) used to estimate the model. The temperature indicators explained 76% of the total over-dispersion. The greater part of the daily fluctuations in mortality was explained by the interaction between minimum and maximum temperatures, for a day t and the day preceding it. The prediction of mortality during extreme events was greatly improved by including the cumulative variables for maximum temperature, in interaction with the maximum temperatures. The correlation between the observed and estimated mortality ratios was 0.88 in the final model. Although France is a large country with geographic heterogeneity in both mortality and temperatures, a strong correlation between the daily fluctuations in mortality and the temperatures in summer on a national scale was observed. The model provided a satisfactory quantitative prediction of the daily mortality both for the days with usual temperatures and for the days during intense heat episodes. The results may contribute to enhancing the alert system for intense heat waves.
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影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Basu, R;Samet, JM
通讯作者：
Samet, JM
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Braga AL;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J
通讯作者：
Schwartz J
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Pattenden, S;Nikiforov, B;Armstrong, BG
通讯作者：
Armstrong, BG
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
ELLIS, FP;NELSON, F
通讯作者：
NELSON, F
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Pascal, M;Laaidi, K;Empereur-Bissonnet, P
通讯作者：
Empereur-Bissonnet, P