Impact of weather on COVID-19 transmission in south Asian countries: An application of the ARIMAX model.
Impact of weather on COVID-19 transmission in south Asian countries: An application of the ARIMAX model.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143315
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发表时间：
2021-03-20
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Uddin MJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hossain MS;Ahmed S;Uddin MJ
我们旨在研究天气对南亚国家(即阿富汗、孟加拉国、印度、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡)新冠肺炎确诊病例的影响。收集了从每个国家确诊病例的第一天到2020年8月31日的每日确诊病例数据以及天气参数。气象参数包括降雨量(Mm)、相对湿度(%)、最高和最低温度(°C)、地面气压(Kpa)、最大空气污染物PM2.5(μg/m~3)和最大风速(m/S)。使用带解释变量的自回归综合移动平均(ARIMAX)模型分别对每个被调查国家的数据进行分析。我们发现，最大风速对印度(−209.45，95%可信区间：−369.13，−49.77)和斯里兰卡(−2.77，95%CI：−4.77，−0.77)的新冠肺炎传播有显著的负面影响。除印度外，温度对南亚四个国家的影响喜忧参半(即积极或消极)。例如，最高气温对孟加拉国有负面影响(−30.52，95%CI：−60.24，−0.78)，对阿富汗有正面影响(5.1%，95%CI：0.06，10.14)。而降雨量在印度有负面影响(−48.64，95%CI：−80.17，−17.09)，在巴基斯坦有混合影响。此外，最大空气污染物PM2.5与新冠肺炎确诊病例呈负相关。总而言之，最大风速、降雨量、空气污染物(最大PM2.5)和温度是可能在新冠肺炎传播中发挥重要作用的四个变量。虽然关于天气参数和新冠肺炎传播的结论喜忧参半，但我们建议制定有关南亚国家传播新冠肺炎的环境政策。
We aimed to examine the impact of weather on COVID-19 confirmed cases in South Asian countries, namely, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Data on daily confirmed cases, together with weather parameters, were collected from the first day of COVID confirmed cases in each country to 31 August 2020. The weather parameters were Rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), maximum and minimum temperature (°C), surface pressure (kPa), maximum air pollutants matter PM 2.5 (μg/m3) and maximum wind speed (m/s). Data were analyzed for each investigated countries separately by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variables (ARIMAX) model. We found that maximum wind speed had significant negative impact on COVID-19 transmission in India (−209.45, 95% confidence interval (CI): −369.13, −49.77) and Sri Lanka (−2.77, 95% CI: −4.77, −0.77). Apart from India, temperature had mixed effects (i.e., positive or negative) in four countries in South Asia. For example, maximum temperature had negative impact (−30.52, 95% CI: −60.24, −0.78) in Bangladesh and positive impact (5.10, 95% CI: 0.06, 10.14) in Afghanistan. Whereas rainfall had negative effects (−48.64, 95% CI: −80.17, −17.09) in India and mixed effects in Pakistan. Besides, maximum air pollutants matter PM 2.5 was negatively associated with the confirmed cases of COVID-19. In conclusion, maximum wind speed, rainfall, air pollutants (maximum PM 2.5) and temperature are four variables that could play a vital role in the transmission of COVID-19. Although there is a mixed conclusion regarding weather parameters and COVID-19 transmission, we recommend developing environmental policies regarding the transmission of COVID-19 in South Asian countries.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138778
发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
The Science of the total environment
影响因子：
--
作者：
Qi, Hongchao;Xiao, Shuang;Zhang, Zhijie
通讯作者：
Zhang, Zhijie
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Razavi, Saman;Vogel, Richard
通讯作者：
Vogel, Richard
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Ma, Yueling;Zhao, Yadong;Luo, Bin
通讯作者：
Luo, Bin
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Chen, CC;McCarl, BA;Schimmelpfennig, DE
通讯作者：
Schimmelpfennig, DE
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Altamimi, Asmaa;Ahmed, Anwar E.
通讯作者：
Ahmed, Anwar E.