Age-specific transmission for different virus serotypes of hand, foot and mouth disease and the impact of interventions in East China, 2009-2015.
Age-specific transmission for different virus serotypes of hand, foot and mouth disease and the impact of interventions in East China, 2009-2015.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e12042
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发表时间：
2022-12
期刊：
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Zhang, Zhijie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Le, Jiaxu;Hong, Jie;Zhao, Zheng;Chen, Yue;Hu, Yi;Chang, Zhaorui;Zhang, Zhijie
手足口病（HFMD）仍然是中国重要的公共卫生问题。了解不同血清型手足口病病毒的年龄特异性传播和评估手足口病的非药物干预（NPI）有助于疾病控制，但很少被考虑。在这里，我们进一步调查手足口病的传播动力学和量化的影响，NPI和疫苗接种对疾病传播。我们提取了2009 - 2015年华东地区报告的手足口病病例信息。肠道特异性感染力（FoI）用于描述血清型（EV-A71、CV-A16和其他肠道病毒）的传播特征。我们使用了一个年龄结构的易感-暴露-危险-去除（SEIR）模型来模拟干预措施如何影响手足口病的爆发。其中包括4，096，270例手足口病病例，160619例病毒血清型确诊病例。感染高峰总是出现在偶数年。CV-A16和EV-A71表现出相似的趋势，1或2岁儿童的FoI普遍最高，但其他肠道病毒没有明确的模式。模拟结果表明，学校休息可以显着降低平均发病率。结合社会干预，可进一步降低发病率，但效果不明显。当疫苗接种率大于或等于20%时，其发病率将低于服用NPI。手足口病的防控应重点关注2岁以下儿童。与NPI相比，疫苗接种更有效。手足口病;传染力;血清型;华东地区;动态模型;干预措施。
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) remains an important public health problem in China. Understandings of age-specific transmission for different virus serotypes of the disease and assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) for HFMD are helpful for disease control, but they have been seldom considered. Here we further investigate transmission dynamics of HFMD and quantify the effects of NPIs and vaccination on the disease transmission. We extracted information of reported HFMD cases from 2009 to 2015 in East China. Age-specific force of infection (FoI) was used to describe the transmission characteristics for serotypes (EV-A71, CV-A16 and other enterovirus). We used an age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to simulate how interventions affect HFMD outbreaks. 4,096,270 HFMD cases were included, and 160619 cases were confirmed for virus serotypes. The peaks of infections always occurred in even-numbered years. CV-A16 and EV-A71 showed a similar trend, children aged 1 or 2 years generally had the highest FoI, but there were no clear patterns for other enterovirus. Simulations showed that school break could dramatically decline the average incidence. When combined with social interventions, it would further reduce the incidence, but the effect is not apparent. When vaccine rate is over or equal to 20%, the incidence would be lower than taking NPIs. More attention should be paid to children under 2 years of age in the prevention and control of HFMD. Compared to NPIs, vaccination is more effective. HFMD; Force of infection; Serotype; East China; Dynamic model; Interventions.
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