Modified Maturity Offset Prediction Equations: Validation in Independent Longitudinal Samples of Boys and Girls.
Modified Maturity Offset Prediction Equations: Validation in Independent Longitudinal Samples of Boys and Girls.
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DOI：
10.1007/s40279-017-0750-y
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发表时间：
2018-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Malina RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kozieł SM;Malina RM
预测的成熟偏移和年龄在高峰身高速度越来越多地用于青年运动员，虽然验证研究的方程表明主要的局限性。此后，这些方程被修改和简化。本研究的目的是验证新的成熟度偏移预测方程在独立的纵向样本的男孩和女孩。两个新的公式，男孩的实际年龄和坐高和实际年龄和身高作为预测因子，和一个公式，女孩的实际年龄和身高作为预测因子进行了评估，在一系列数据从Wrocketaw生长研究，193名男孩（8-18岁）和198名女孩（8-16岁）。观察到的年龄在高峰身高增长速度为每个青年估计与Preece-Baines模型1。为了比较，包括了原始预测方程。高峰生长速度的预测年龄是预测时的实际年龄与成熟期偏移之间的差值。用新方程预测的身高增长速度峰值年龄近似于平均成熟男孩在身高增长速度峰值时间附近观察到的身高增长速度峰值年龄;平均成熟女孩的相应窗口不明显。与实测年龄相比，新方程和原方程预测的早熟青年身高增长速度峰值年龄均偏晚，晚熟青年偏早。与原始方程相比，新方程预测的峰高速度年龄的变异减小，尤其是峰高速度观测年龄。在预测年龄的峰值身高速度与所有方程的个体内变化是相当大的。新的方程是有用的平均成熟的男孩接近高峰身高速度的时间，似乎没有一个明确的窗口平均成熟的女孩。新的和原始的方程对于早熟和晚熟的男孩和女孩有很大的局限性。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1007/s40279-017-0750-y）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Predicted maturity offset and age at peak height velocity are increasingly used with youth athletes, although validation studies of the equations indicated major limitations. The equations have since been modified and simplified. The objective of this study was to validate the new maturity offset prediction equations in independent longitudinal samples of boys and girls. Two new equations for boys with chronological age and sitting height and chronological age and stature as predictors, and one equation for girls with chronological age and stature as predictors were evaluated in serial data from the Wrocław Growth Study, 193 boys (aged 8–18 years) and 198 girls (aged 8–16 years). Observed age at peak height velocity for each youth was estimated with the Preece–Baines Model 1. The original prediction equations were included for comparison. Predicted age at peak height velocity was the difference between chronological age at prediction and maturity offset. Predicted ages at peak height velocity with the new equations approximated observed ages at peak height velocity in average maturing boys near the time of peak height velocity; a corresponding window for average maturing girls was not apparent. Compared with observed age at peak height velocity, predicted ages at peak height velocity with the new and original equations were consistently later in early maturing youth and earlier in late maturing youth of both sexes. Predicted ages at peak height velocity with the new equations had reduced variation compared with the original equations and especially observed ages at peak height velocity. Intra-individual variation in predicted ages at peak height velocity with all equations was considerable. The new equations are useful for average maturing boys close to the time of peak height velocity; there does not appear to be a clear window for average maturing girls. The new and original equations have major limitations with early and late maturing boys and girls. The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s40279-017-0750-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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