The effects of human movement on the persistence of vector-borne diseases.
The effects of human movement on the persistence of vector-borne diseases.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.02.016
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发表时间：
2009-06-21
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Ruan, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cosner, C.;Beier, J. C.;Cantrell, R. S.;Impoinvil, D.;Kapitanski, L.;Potts, M. D.;Troyo, A.;Ruan, S.
关键词：
随着最近城市化和发展引起的媒介传播疾病的死灰复燃，迫切需要了解媒介传播疾病在快速变化的城市环境中的动态。例如，许多实证研究得出了令人不安的发现，即疾病继续在传播率为零或低的现代城市中心持续存在。我们在补丁网络上开发了媒介传播疾病动力学的空间模型，以检查人类在不同环境中的移动如何影响传播。我们证明，人类在斑块之间的运动足以维持零传播斑块中的疾病持久性。我们使用不同的方法构建了两类模型：(I)模拟人类通勤行为的拉格朗日模型和(Ii)模拟人类迁徙的欧拉模型。我们确定了两种建模方法的基本再现数R0。我们证明了对于这两种方法，如果无病平衡点是稳定的(R0<；1)，那么它是全局稳定的，如果无病平衡点是不稳定的(R0>；1)，那么存在唯一的正(地方病)平衡点，它在正解中是全局稳定的。最后，我们从总体上证明了拉格朗日建模方法和欧拉建模方法是不等价的。所提出的建模方法为探索异质环境中空间病媒传播的疾病动力学和控制提供了一个框架。作为一个例子，我们考虑了两个斑块，当它们之间没有运动时，疾病在两个斑块中都消失了。数值模拟表明，当人类在两个斑块之间移动时，这种疾病在两个斑块中都会成为地方性疾病。
With the recent resurgence of vector-borne diseases due to urbanization and development there is an urgent need to understand the dynamics of vector-borne diseases in rapidly changing urban environments. For example, many empirical studies have produced the disturbing finding that diseases continue to persist in modern city centers with zero or low rates of transmission. We develop spatial models of vector-borne disease dynamics on a network of patches to examine how the movement of humans in heterogeneous environments affects transmission. We show that the movement of humans between patches is sufficient to maintain disease persistence in patches with zero transmission. We construct two classes of models using different approaches: (i) Lagrangian models that mimic human commuting behavior and (ii) Eulerian models that mimic human migration. We determine the basic reproduction number R0 for both modeling approaches. We show that for both approaches that if the disease free equilibrium is stable (R0 < 1) then it is globally stable and if the disease free equilibrium is unstable (R0 > 1) then there exists a unique positive (endemic) equilibrium that is globally stable among positive solutions. Finally, we prove in general that Lagrangian and Eulerian modeling approaches are not equivalent. The modeling approaches presented provide a framework to explore spatial vector-borne disease dynamics and control in heterogeneous environments. As an example, we consider two patches in which the disease dies out in both patches when there is no movement between them. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the disease becomes endemic in both patches when humans move between the two patches.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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发表时间：
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影响因子：
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