Investigating whether the inclusion of humid heat metrics improves estimates of AC penetration rates: a case study of Southern California
Investigating whether the inclusion of humid heat metrics improves estimates of AC penetration rates: a case study of Southern California
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调查纳入湿热指标是否可以提高空调普及率的估计：南加州的案例研究
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acfb96
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Sanders, Kelly T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peplinski, McKenna;Kalmus, Peter;Sanders, Kelly T
随着气温和湿度的上升加剧了人们所经历的热压力，预计到2050年，全球制冷能力将增加两倍。虽然空调（AC）是减少极端高温暴露的关键适应工具，但我们目前对空调所有权模式的了解有限。开发高分辨率的交流拥有量估算对于识别易受极端高温影响的社区和告知未来电力系统投资至关重要，因为制冷需求的增加将加剧老化电力系统的压力。在这项研究中，我们利用分段线性回归模型，通过调查约160000个家庭的日常家庭用电量与各种湿热指标（HHMs）之间的关系，来确定南加州的AC拥有率。我们假设，通过考虑湿度和温度的综合指数，可以改善空调渗透率估算，即在特定区域内安装空调的家庭比例。我们在2015年和2016年为每个家庭使用每个独特的热量指标运行模型，并比较人口普查区水平上空调拥有量估计的差异。总的来说，81%的家庭被确定为至少有一个热量指标的空调，而69%的家庭被确定为在所有五个热量指标上达成共识的空调。回归结果还表明，干球温度（DBT）回归的r2值（0.39）与HHMs回归的r2值（0.15 ~ 0.40）相当或更高。我们的研究结果表明，结合使用热指标可以增加对交流渗透率估计的信心，但单独使用DBT产生的估计与其他HHMs相似，这些HHMs通常更难以单独获得。未来的工作应该在高湿地区研究这些结果。
Global cooling capacity is expected to triple by 2050, as rising temperatures and humidity levels intensify the heat stress that populations experience. Although air conditioning (AC) is a key adaptation tool for reducing exposure to extreme heat, we currently have a limited understanding of patterns of AC ownership. Developing high resolution estimates of AC ownership is critical for identifying communities vulnerable to extreme heat and for informing future electricity system investments as increases in cooling demand will exacerbate strain placed on aging power systems. In this study, we utilize a segmented linear regression model to identify AC ownership across Southern California by investigating the relationship between daily household electricity usage and a variety of humid heat metrics (HHMs) for~ 160000 homes. We hypothesize that AC penetration rate estimates, ie the percentage of homes in a defined area that have AC, can be improved by considering indices that incorporate humidity as well as temperature. We run the model for each household with each unique heat metric for the years 2015 and 2016 and compare differences in AC ownership estimates at the census tract level. In total, 81% of the households were identified as having AC by at least one heat metric while 69% of the homes were determined to have AC with a consensus across all five of the heat metrics. Regression results also showed that the r 2 values for the dry bulb temperature (DBT)(0.39) regression were either comparable to or higher than the r 2 values for HHMs (0.15–0.40). Our results suggest that using a combination of heat metrics can increase confidence in AC penetration rate estimates, but using DBT alone produces similar estimates to other HHMs, which are often more difficult to access, individually. Future work should investigate these results in regions with high humidity.
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影响因子：
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作者：
L. V. Vargas Zeppetello;A. Raftery;D. Battisti
通讯作者：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
Coffel, Ethan D.;Horton, Radley M.;de Sherbinin, Alex
通讯作者：
de Sherbinin, Alex