Parameterization of the duration of infection stages of serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus: an analytical review and meta-analysis with application to simulation models.
Parameterization of the duration of infection stages of serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus: an analytical review and meta-analysis with application to simulation models.
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DOI：
10.1051/vetres/2010017
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发表时间：
2010-07
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Carpenter T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mardones F;Perez A;Sanchez J;Alkhamis M;Carpenter T
口蹄疫（FMD）被认为是最重要的牲畜传染病之一，因为它在受影响地区造成毁灭性的经济后果。影响FMD病毒（FMDV）传播率的关键参数（例如潜伏期的持续时间或感染期的持续时间）的值被认为受宿主和病毒的特性影响。疾病控制和监测战略，以及口蹄疫模拟模型，将受益于改进的参数估计。本研究的目的是量化与口蹄疫病毒传播的潜伏期、亚临床期、潜伏期和传染期相关的变量的分布。对检索到的19篇报告实验试验结果的出版物进行了双重独立的系统评价，使用了4个参考实验室的295只动物，以提取与FMDV传播相关的个体值。将概率密度函数拟合到数据，并使用一组回归模型来确定与评估参数相关的因素。潜伏期、亚临床期、潜伏期和感染期分别为3.1 - 4.8、2 - 2.3、5.5 - 6.6和3.3 - 5.7天。持续时间与暴露途径、供体类型、动物种属、品系、采样特征和临床体征独立相关（p < 0.05）。这些结果将有助于改进疾病控制和监测策略以及用于模拟口蹄疫传播的随机模型，并最终制定具有成本效益的计划，以预防和控制世界上无口蹄疫地区疾病的潜在传播。
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is considered one of the most important infectious diseases of livestock because of the devastating economic consequences that it inflicts in affected regions. The value of critical parameters, such as the duration of the latency or the duration of the infectious periods, which affect the transmission rate of the FMD virus (FMDV), are believed to be influenced by characteristics of the host and the virus. Disease control and surveillance strategies, as well as FMD simulation models, will benefit from improved parameter estimation. The objective of this study was to quantify the distributions of variables associated with the duration of the latency, subclinical, incubation, and infectiousness periods of FMDV transmission. A double independent, systematic review of 19 retrieved publications reporting results from experimental trials, using 295 animals in four reference laboratories, was performed to extract individual values related to FMDV transmission. Probability density functions were fitted to data and a set of regression models were used to identify factors associated with the assessed parameters. Latent, subclinical, incubation, and infectious periods ranged from 3.1 to 4.8, 2 to 2.3, 5.5 to 6.6, and 3.3 to 5.7 days, respectively. Durations were significantly (p < 0.05) associated independently with route of exposure, type of donor, animal species, strains, characteristics of sampling, and clinical signs. These results will contribute to the improvement of disease control and surveillance strategies and stochastic models used to simulate FMD spread and, ultimately, development of cost-effective plans to prevent and control the potential spread of the disease in FMD-free regions of the world.
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影响因子：
1
作者：
Bates, TW;Thurmond, MC;Carpenter, TE
通讯作者：
Carpenter, TE
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Gibbens, JC;Sharpe, CE;Hudson, M
通讯作者：
Hudson, M
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
DONALDSON, AI;KITCHING, RP
通讯作者：
KITCHING, RP
影响因子：
0.8
作者：
BURROWS, R;MANN, JA;GOODRIDGE, D
通讯作者：
GOODRIDGE, D
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2004.3046
发表时间：
2005-06-22
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Keeling, MJ
通讯作者：
Keeling, MJ