Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.
Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0054216
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Cheung WW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones MC;Dye SR;Fernandes JA;Frölicher TL;Pinnegar JK;Warren R;Cheung WW
全球气候变化正在影响海洋物种的分布，并被认为是对生物多样性的威胁。以往的研究预测，在气候变化的影响下，某些物种的物种范围会扩大，而其他地方的物种则会局部灭绝。这种范围的变化引起了人们对一些物种的关注，这些物种的长期生存已经受到了其他人类干扰（如捕鱼）的威胁。然而，很少有研究试图利用多模型方法评估未来气候变化对濒危脊椎动物海洋物种的影响。最近，人们对气候变化对保护区的影响也越来越感兴趣。本研究采用3种物种分布模型和2套气候模型预估，探讨了到2050年气候变化对海洋物种的潜在影响。以北海的一组物种为例，其中包括7种濒危物种和10种主要商业物种。在未来气候情景下，对这些物种在英国选定的候选保护区的栖息地适宜性变化进行了评估。此外，计算了商业和受威胁物种范围之间重叠程度的变化，作为通过副渔获物过度捕捞造成的潜在威胁的代表。总体预测表明，物种以每十年27公里的平均速度向北移动，导致受威胁物种和商业开发物种之间范围重叠的平均变化很小。此外，气候变化对保护区生境适宜性的不利影响较小。尽管这些模型显示气候变化的预测结果存在很大差异，但多模型方法有助于识别严重濒危物种（如普通鳐（Dipturus batis）和天使鲨（Squatina Squatina））暴露于人类压力源增加的潜在风险。
Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).
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影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Araujo, M. B.;Thuiller, W.;Pearson, R. G.
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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作者：
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