Balancing a budget or running a deficit? The offset regime of carbon removal and solar geoengineering under a carbon budget
Balancing a budget or running a deficit? The offset regime of carbon removal and solar geoengineering under a carbon budget
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平衡预算还是出现赤字？
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-021-03174-1
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Markusson Nils
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Asayama Shinichiro;Hulme Mike;Markusson Nils
碳预算的概念是定义和量化气候挑战的有力概念工具。虽然科学家们将碳预算作为全球净零目标的地球物理基础，但预算的金融隐喻隐喻了一个监督预算平衡的“预算经理”的存在。本文以预算管理者的这种虚构特征为启发式工具，分析了碳预算下二氧化碳去除（CDR）和太阳辐射管理（SRM）的作用。我们认为CDR和SRM都可以被理解为“抵消技术”。CDR通过负排放抵消正碳排放，而SRM通过负强迫诱导降温抵消正温室气体强迫造成的变暖。这些抵消技术在两种不同的预算管理战略中作为灵活的预算工具：它们提供了实现平衡预算的承诺，但也引入了运行预算赤字的可能性。抵消的吸引力在于它既能保持既定预算的“表面”，又能在一定时期内缓解预算限制。抵消的政治副作用是将预算约束的严格程度从由地球物理学调节变为由人类自由裁量来调节。因此，预算赤字可以正常化为一种可接受的财政状况。我们认为，政策制定者避免指责的行为倾向可能导致他们诉诸于使用抵消技术，以避免承认未能确保给定的温度目标。
The idea of the carbon budget is a powerful conceptual tool to define and quantify the climate challenge. Whilst scientists present the carbon budget as the geophysical foundation for global net-zero targets, the financial metaphor of a budget implies figuratively the existence of a ‘budget manager’ who oversees the budget balance. Using this fictive character of budget manager as a heuristic device, the paper analyses the roles of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM) under a carbon budget. We argue that both CDR and SRM can be understood as ‘technologies of offset’. CDR offsets positive carbon emissions by negative emissions, whereas SRM offsets the warming from positive greenhouse gas forcing by the induced cooling from negative forcing. These offset technologies serve as flexible budgeting tools in two different strategies for budget management: they offer the promise of achieving a balanced budget, but also introduce the possibility for running a budget deficit. The lure of offsetting rests on the flexibility of keeping up an ‘appearance’ of delivering a given budget whilst at the same time easing budget constraints for a certain period of time. The political side-effect of offsetting is to change the stringency of budgetary constraints from being regulated by geophysics to being adjustable by human discretion. As a result, a budget deficit can be normalised as an acceptable fiscal condition. We suggest that the behavioural tendency of policymakers to avoid blame could lead them to resort to using offset technologies to circumvent the admission of failure to secure a given temperature target.
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影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Steven J. Smith;P. Rasch
通讯作者：
P. Rasch
DOI：
10.3389/fclim.2021.664130
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
影响因子：
--
作者：
Wim Carton;J. Lund;Kate Dooley
通讯作者：
Kate Dooley
探索负面领域二氧化碳清除和气候政策举措
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
J. Meadowcroft
通讯作者：
J. Meadowcroft
影响因子：
7.1
作者：
Kuramochi, Takeshi;Hoehne, Niklas;Blok, Kornelis
通讯作者：
Blok, Kornelis
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1992
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
T. Porter
通讯作者：
T. Porter