Projected climate change threatens pollinators and crop production in Brazil.
Projected climate change threatens pollinators and crop production in Brazil.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0182274
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Garibaldi LA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Giannini TC;Costa WF;Cordeiro GD;Imperatriz-Fonseca VL;Saraiva AM;Biesmeijer J;Garibaldi LA
动物授粉会影响粮食安全，因为许多作物依赖授粉者来生产果实和种子。然而，预测的气候变化对作物传粉者的影响，从而对作物生产仍然不清楚，特别是对野生传粉者和总的社区反应。利用物种分布模型，我们评估了气候变化对13种巴西作物的95种传粉昆虫的地理分布的影响，并估计了它们对作物生产的相对影响。我们在市一级描述了这些影响，并评估了种植的作物、这些作物的总产量、作物总产值和居民人数。总的来说，考虑到所有作物物种，我们发现，到2050年，预计的气候变化将使传粉者出现的概率降低近0.13。我们的模型预测，近90%的城市分析将面临物种损失。传粉者发生概率的下降从0.08（柿子）到0.25（番茄）不等，并可能影响9%（柑橘）到100%（向日葵）的城市，生产每种作物。由于传粉媒介的损失，巴西中部和南部地区的农作物生产可能面临相对较大的影响。相比之下，巴西北方的一些城市，特别是亚马逊西北部的城市，可能会从气候变化中受益，因为某些作物的传粉者可能会增加。在国内生产总值最低的许多城市，传粉媒介出现的概率下降，也可能影响到作物产量高（占国内生产总值的20%至90%）和居民人数也很高（超过600万人）的一些地方。我们的研究突出了作物在经济上具有重要意义的主要城市，以及由于气候变化，传粉者可能面临最恶劣条件的城市。然而，传粉者也许能够找到新的合适的地区，有潜力提高作物产量。这里显示的结果可以指导政策决定，以适应气候变化和防止授粉物种和作物生产的损失。
Animal pollination can impact food security since many crops depend on pollinators to produce fruits and seeds. However, the effects of projected climate change on crop pollinators and therefore on crop production are still unclear, especially for wild pollinators and aggregate community responses. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of 95 pollinator species of 13 Brazilian crops, and we estimated their relative impacts on crop production. We described these effects at the municipality level, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross production volume of these crops, the total crop production value, and the number of inhabitants. Overall, considering all crop species, we found that the projected climate change will reduce the probability of pollinator occurrence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our models predict that almost 90% of the municipalities analyzed will face species loss. Decreases in the pollinator occurrence probability varied from 0.08 (persimmon) to 0.25 (tomato) and will potentially affect 9% (mandarin) to 100% (sunflower) of the municipalities that produce each crop. Municipalities in central and southern Brazil will potentially face relatively large impacts on crop production due to pollinator loss. In contrast, some municipalities in northern Brazil, particularly in the northwestern Amazon, could potentially benefit from climate change because pollinators of some crops may increase. The decline in the probability of pollinator occurrence is found in a large number of municipalities with the lowest GDP and will also likely affect some places where crop production is high (20% to 90% of the GDP) and where the number of inhabitants is also high (more than 6 million people). Our study highlights key municipalities where crops are economically important and where pollinators will potentially face the worst conditions due to climate change. However, pollinators may be able to find new suitable areas that have the potential to improve crop production. The results shown here could guide policy decisions for adapting to climate change and for preventing the loss of pollinator species and crop production.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agee.2015.12.007
发表时间：
2016-03-15
期刊：
Agriculture, ecosystems & environment
影响因子：
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作者：
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