Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling.
Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12960-020-00524-5
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发表时间：
2020-11-05
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Ogasawara K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morii Y;Furuta S;Ishikawa T;Fujiwara K;Yamashina H;Ogasawara K
在人口老龄化严重的日本，医药行业在促进国民健康方面发挥着重要作用。因此，药剂师的分布必须满足每个地区人口的需要。本研究预测未来药房药师的供需状况，考虑药师的最佳配置。本研究根据北海道药店的药剂师的职业发展道路，利用系统动力学模型对今后的药剂师供给量进行了预测，并根据公开的处方数量预测了需求量。分析期为2015-2040年。将估计的需求转换为药剂师数量，并使用充足率（供需比）评估充足性。对充足率进行了敏感性分析，以估计国家考试通过率、入学率、流失率、每位药剂师的处方数量和新执业药剂师的扩散等参数变化的影响。预计2025年和2040年的供应量分别是2015年的1.24倍和1.56倍，需求量分别是2015年的1.11倍和0.98倍。2015年，虽然北海道的整体充足率为1.19，但城市医疗区的充足率较高，而农村医疗区的充足率低于1，如南松山、埃蒙、根室等。到2040年，除埃蒙外，所有地区的充足率都大于1，某些地区高于2。敏感性分析发现，充足率对新执业药师的扩散和每位药师的处方数量最为敏感。应考虑优化分布，因为结果显示2015-2025年农村医疗区药师数量可能短缺。相反，由于预计2025年后需求将随着人口减少而减少，因此应确定未来的供应量，以免在2025年后造成供应过剩。由于药剂师的角色等相关因素会随时间而改变，因此应改善推算模式。
Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people’s health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population’s needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies to consider an optimal distribution of pharmacists. The future supply of pharmacists working in pharmacies in Hokkaido is projected using system dynamics modeling, according to their career path. The demand is projected based on the number of prescriptions, sourced from publicly available sources. The analysis period is 2015–2040. The estimated demand is converted into the number of pharmacists and the sufficiency is evaluated using sufficiency ratio (supply/demand ratio). Sensitivity analyses of the sufficiency ratio were conducted to estimate the effects of changes in parameters such as national exam pass rate, enrollments, attrition rates, the number of prescriptions per pharmacist, and diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists. The projected supply, in 2025 and 2040, is 1.24 and 1.56 times, respectively, as that in 2015 and the demand is 1.11 and 0.98 times, respectively. In 2015, although the sufficiency ratio in Hokkaido overall is 1.19, the ratios are higher in urban medical areas and lower than 1 in rural medical areas, such as Minamihiyama, Emmon, and Nemuro. By 2040, the sufficiency ratios are greater than 1 for all areas except for Emmon and higher than 2 in some areas. The sensitivity analyses found that the sufficiency ratio was most sensitive to diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists and the number of prescriptions per pharmacist. Optimal distribution should be considered, as the results reveal a possible shortage in the number of pharmacists in rural medical areas in 2015–2025. Conversely, as the demand is projected to decrease after 2025 with a population decrease, future supply should be determined in order not to cause an oversupply after 2025. Refinements of the projection model should be conducted since the related factors such as the roles of pharmacists will change over time.
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影响因子：
6
作者：
Morii, Yasuhiro;Ishikawa, Tomoki;Yamashina, Hiroko
通讯作者：
Yamashina, Hiroko
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Barber P;López-Valcárcel BG
通讯作者：
López-Valcárcel BG
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Ishikawa T;Ohba H;Yokooka Y;Nakamura K;Ogasawara K
通讯作者：
Ogasawara K
影响因子：
12.7
作者：
Homer, JB;Hirsch, GB
通讯作者：
Hirsch, GB
影响因子：
7.4
作者：
Xu, Zhao;Coors, Volker
通讯作者：
Coors, Volker