Probabilistic assessment of local scour in bridge piers under changing environmental conditions
Probabilistic assessment of local scour in bridge piers under changing environmental conditions
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环境条件变化下桥墩局部冲刷的概率评估
DOI：
10.1080/15732479.2015.1102295
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Kallias A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kallias A
冲刷是世界范围内桥梁破坏最普遍的原因之一。桥址河水流量大小是直接影响冲孔深度的关键因素。由于降水模式和集水区特征的变化，气候变化可能引起河流流量特征的变化。本文将河流年最大预期流量的统计分析与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合，估计局部冲刷破坏的概率。假定气候变化是通过预期最大年流量分布的统计特征的逐渐变化来表现的。结果来自英国一座桥梁的案例研究，该研究表明，与单独增加其变异性相比，预期最大年流量平均值的时间依赖性增加对冲刷性能的影响更为明显。然而，在所研究的情况中，对局部冲刷性能的最不利影响是由预期最大年流量的平均值和变异性同时增加观察到的。研究结果还强调了基础深度和局部冲刷模型参数对流动特性变化的重要性。
Scour is one of the most widespread causes of bridge failure worldwide. The magnitude of the river flow at the bridge location is a key factor which directly affects the scour hole depth. Climate change may cause changes in the flow characteristics in a river due to changes in the precipitation patterns and catchment characteristics. In this paper, statistical analysis of the expected maximum annual flow of rivers is combined with the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability of local scour failure. Climate change is assumed to manifest itself through gradual changes in the statistical characteristics of the expected maximum annual flow distributions. Results are presented from a case study using a bridge in the UK, which revealed that a time-dependent increase in the mean of the expected maximum annual flow has a more pronounced effect on scour performance as compared to an increase of its variability alone. Amongst the cases examined, however, the most adverse effect on local scour performance is observed from the simultaneous increase in both mean and variability of the expected maximum annual flow. The results also highlighted the significance of the foundation depth and local scour model parameter in relation to the changing flow characteristics.
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气候变化和河流洪水：第 2 部分英国流域的敏感性特征和脆弱性评估示例
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
C. Prudhomme;A. Kay;S. Crooks;N. Reynard
通讯作者：
N. Reynard
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2010.0133
发表时间：
2010-09-27
期刊：
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lutz W;K C S
通讯作者：
K C S
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)gt.1943-5606.0000989
发表时间：
2014-02
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
J. Briaud;P. Gardoni;Congpu Yao
通讯作者：
J. Briaud;P. Gardoni;Congpu Yao
金属桥梁失效的原因和后果
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
B. Imam;M. Chryssanthopoulos
通讯作者：
M. Chryssanthopoulos
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2007-11
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático
通讯作者：
Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático