Super Aging in South Korea Unstoppable but Mitigatable: A Sub-National Scale Population Projection for Best Policy Planning.
Super Aging in South Korea Unstoppable but Mitigatable: A Sub-National Scale Population Projection for Best Policy Planning.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s40980-020-00061-8
复制
发表时间：
2020-07
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Kim OS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kim KW;Kim OS
本研究描绘了韩国各地区超老龄化的时空进展。这项研究利用考虑国内总移民的单年人口预测，确定了哪些地区将很快成为超老龄化社会。采用了具有移民池模型的队列成分方法。2000年至2018年的全国县级人口登记数据被汇总到37个地区进行模型运行。到2020年，16个农村地区将成为超老龄化社会。到2029年，包括首都圈在内的37个地区将以行政首都世宗为最后一个加入。简而言之，农村地区比大都市地区更早进入超老龄化阶段，在10年内，65岁及以上的老年人将占全国人口的大多数。在所有首都圈中，最大的港口城市釜山将在2023年率先实现超老龄化。世宗将在2020年至2050年间经历最彻底的变化。研究结果表明：农村人口变化与城市人口变化存在差异；因此，最近的人口政策，如提高生育率，可能在农村地区不起作用，因为由于全国范围内的极端和持续的城市化，农村地区已经失去了人口增长的动力。不可阻挡的老龄化将对未来的公民（大多是老年人）在经济和医学上造成不利影响。例如，预计保健支出将增加，全国输血用血短缺。
This research portrays the spatial and temporal progression of super-aging in regions throughout South Korea. Using a single-year population projection considering gross domestic migration, this research identifies which regions will shortly become a super-aged society. A cohort-component method with a migrant pool model is applied. The county-level national population registration data (2000–2018) are aggregated into 37 regions for the model run. In 2020, 16 rural regions will become super-aged societies. By 2029, all 37 regions, including the metropolitan areas, will join the group, with Sejong, the administrative capital, being the last to enter. In brief, the rural areas become super-aged earlier than the metropolitan areas, and within a decade, those 65 years old or older will make up the majority of the national population. Among all the metropolitan areas, Busan, the largest harbor city, will be the first to be super-aged in 2023. Sejong will experience the most radical change between 2020 and 2050. The research outcomes demonstrate that demographic changes in the rural and metropolitan areas are different; hence, the recent population policies, such as promoting fertility, may not work in the rural areas as they have already lost their population momentum due to the extreme and ongoing urbanization throughout the nation. The unstoppable aging will pose adverse effects on future citizens (who are mostly senior) both financially and medically. An increase in health care expenditure and a nationwide blood shortage for transfusion are anticipated, for example.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1068/a050031
发表时间：
1973-01-01
期刊：
ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING A
影响因子：
--
作者：
FEENEY, G
通讯作者：
FEENEY, G
影响因子：
0.2
作者：
Jeong, Seunghwan;Kim, Kee-Whan
通讯作者：
Kim, Kee-Whan
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Matthews SA;Yang TC
通讯作者：
Yang TC
DOI：
10.7851/ksrp.2019.25.4.099
发表时间：
2019-01-01
期刊：
Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chang, Chu Youn;Bae, Jae Soo;Seol, Ara
通讯作者：
Seol, Ara
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Dion, Patrice
通讯作者：
Dion, Patrice