More than 20 years of registration of type 1 diabetes in Sardinian children: temporal variations of incidence with age, period of diagnosis, and year of birth.

More than 20 years of registration of type 1 diabetes in Sardinian children: temporal variations of incidence with age, period of diagnosis, and year of birth.
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DOI:
10.2337/db12-1771
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发表时间:
2013-10
期刊:
影响因子:
7.7
通讯作者:
Sardinian Group for Diabetes Epidemiology
Sardinian Group for Diabetes Epidemiology
中科院分区:
医学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Bruno G;Maule M;Biggeri A;Ledda A;Mannu C;Merletti F;Songini M;Sardinian Group for Diabetes Epidemiology

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我们分析了撒丁岛登记数据,以评估1989-2009年期间(2,371例0-14岁受试者)1型糖尿病发病率(IR)的时间趋势。Poisson回归模型用于估计性别、年龄、诊断期和出生队列的影响。IR为44.8例/100,000人-年(95% CI 43.1-46.7)。年增长率为2.12%(1.45-2.80;线性趋势检验,P < 0.001)。男孩在5岁以下,女孩在8岁以下,这一增长趋势很明显。与1989-1994年出生队列相比,相对风险从1974-1979年的0.78(0.61-1.10)增加到2004-2009年的1.62(1.18-2.23)。这一时期的增长不那么引人注目,近年来有倒退的趋势。男孩的最佳拟合模型包括年龄和线性时间趋势,女孩的年龄和日历周期和出生队列的非线性影响。总之,发病率随着时间的推移而增加,最近几年按日历期而不是按出生队列的增长趋于平稳,有一些证据表明女孩的增长比男孩的增长更大。如果这一增加可归因于某些围产期环境因素的影响,这将意味着这种因素在男性之前开始影响女性。
We analyzed Sardinian registry data to assess time trends in incidence rates (IRs) of type 1 diabetes during the period 1989–2009 (2,371 case subjects 0–14 years of age). Poisson regression models were used to estimate the effects of sex, age, period of diagnosis, and birth cohorts. IR was 44.8 cases/100,000 person-years (95% CI 43.1–46.7). The annual increase was 2.12% (1.45–2.80; test for linear trend, P < 0.001). For boys, the increasing trend was evident up to 5 years of age and for girls up to 8 years of age. Compared with the 1989–1994 birth cohort, the relative risk increased from 0.78 (0.61–1.10) in 1974–1979 to 1.62 (1.18–2.23) in 2004–2009. The increase over period was less striking, with a tendency to regress in more recent years. The best-fitting model for boys included age and a linear time trend, and for girls age and nonlinear effects of calendar period and birth cohort. In conclusion, incidence increased over time, and the increase tended to level off in more recent years by calendar period but not by birth cohort, with some evidence of a stronger increase among girls than boys. Should the increase be attributable to the effects of some perinatal environmental factor, this would mean that such a factor has started affecting females before males.
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