Summer heat and mortality in New York City: how hot is too hot?
Summer heat and mortality in New York City: how hot is too hot?
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.0900906
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发表时间：
2010-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Matte TD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Metzger KB;Ito K;Matte TD
为了评估热浪的公共卫生风险并设定过热警报的标准，不同的司法管辖区使用了各种气象指标和模型，通常没有对替代方案进行系统比较。我们报告了对纽约市的这样一项分析，该分析将最高热量指数与模型中的替代指标进行比较，以预测 1997 年至 2006 年暖季自然原因死亡率的每日变化。我们使用泊松时间序列广义线性模型和广义加性模型，使用各种指标、滞后和平均时间以及函数形式来估计天气-死亡率关系，并比较模型拟合。包含同一天和前 3 天的最高炎热指数三次函数的模型提供了最佳拟合，优于使用最高、最低或平均温度或天气类型的空间天气分类 (SSC) 的模型。我们发现，使用参数和非参数模型，拟合优度和最大高温指数死亡率函数相似。当天最高高温指数与其范围内的死亡风险呈线性相关。滞后 1、2 和 3 天的斜率在中等值范围内平坦，但在最高热指数 95°F 和 100°F (35–38°C) 之间急剧增加。添加到最高炎热指数模型中的SSC或其他气象变量适度改善了拟合优度，同时略微减弱了最高炎热指数-死亡率函数。在纽约市，最高炎热指数在估计炎热天气期间的死亡风险方面与替代且更复杂的指标类似。当预计高温指数超过 95–100°F 时，线性关系支持在纽约市发布高温警报。建议使用最新数据定期进行特定城市的分析，以评估极端高温造成的公共卫生风险。
To assess the public health risk of heat waves and to set criteria for alerts for excessive heat, various meteorologic metrics and models are used in different jurisdictions, generally without systematic comparisons of alternatives. We report such an analysis for New York City that compared maximum heat index with alternative metrics in models to predict daily variation in warm-season natural-cause mortality from 1997 through 2006. We used Poisson time-series generalized linear models and generalized additive models to estimate weather–mortality relationships using various metrics, lag and averaging times, and functional forms and compared model fit. A model that included cubic functions of maximum heat index on the same and each of the previous 3 days provided the best fit, better than models using maximum, minimum, or average temperature, or spatial synoptic classification (SSC) of weather type. We found that goodness of fit and maximum heat index–mortality functions were similar using parametric and nonparametric models. Same-day maximum heat index was linearly related to mortality risk across its range. The slopes at lags of 1, 2, and 3 days were flat across moderate values but increased sharply between maximum heat index of 95°F and 100°F (35–38°C). SSC or other meteorologic variables added to the maximum heat index model moderately improved goodness of fit, with slightly attenuated maximum heat index–mortality functions. In New York City, maximum heat index performed similarly to alternative and more complex metrics in estimating mortality risk during hot weather. The linear relationship supports issuing heat alerts in New York City when the heat index is forecast to exceed approximately 95–100°F. Periodic city-specific analyses using recent data are recommended to evaluate public health risks from extreme heat.
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影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Gaffin, S. R.;Rosenzweig, C.;Hillel, D.
通讯作者：
Hillel, D.
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Basu, R;Samet, JM
通讯作者：
Samet, JM
影响因子：
9.6
作者：
Meral, M;Mirici, A;Gorguner, M
通讯作者：
Gorguner, M
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Davis RE;Knappenberger PC;Michaels PJ;Novicoff WM
通讯作者：
Novicoff WM
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Hajat, S;Kovats, RS;Haines, A
通讯作者：
Haines, A