Monitoring influenza activity in the United States: a comparison of traditional surveillance systems with Google Flu Trends.
Monitoring influenza activity in the United States: a comparison of traditional surveillance systems with Google Flu Trends.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0018687
复制
发表时间：
2011-04-27
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Goss CH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ortiz JR;Zhou H;Shay DK;Neuzil KM;Fowlkes AL;Goss CH
Google流感趋势是为了从互联网搜索中估计美国流感样疾病（ILI）的发病率而开发的;然而，ILI并不一定与实际的流感病毒感染相关。2003-04年至2007-08年的流感活动数据来自三个美国监测系统：Google Flu Trends、CDC门诊ILI监测网络（CDC ILI监测）和美国流感病毒监测系统（CDC病毒监测）。计算Pearson相关系数和95%置信区间（95%CI），以比较监测数据。进行分析以调查离群值观察结果并确定它们影响监测数据之间相关性的程度。研究期间描述Google流感趋势和CDC病毒监测的Pearson相关系数为0.72（95% CI：0.64，0.79）。CDC ILI监测与同期CDC病毒监测之间的相关性为0.85（95% CI：0.81，0.89）。两次比较中的大多数离群值观察结果来自2003-04年流感季节。排除离群值观察结果并未显著改善Google Flu Trends和CDC病毒监测（0.82; 95%CI：0.76，0.87）或CDC ILI监测和CDC病毒监测（0.86; 95%CI：0.82，0.90）之间的相关性。这项分析表明，虽然谷歌流感趋势与ILI的发病率高度相关，但与实验室确认的流感监测的相关性较低。大多数离群值观察发生在2003-04年流感季节，其特征是早期和强烈的流感活动，这可能会改变就医行为，医生测试实践和互联网搜索行为。
Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate US influenza-like illness (ILI) rates from internet searches; however ILI does not necessarily correlate with actual influenza virus infections. Influenza activity data from 2003–04 through 2007–08 were obtained from three US surveillance systems: Google Flu Trends, CDC Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (CDC ILI Surveillance), and US Influenza Virologic Surveillance System (CDC Virus Surveillance). Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to compare surveillance data. An analysis was performed to investigate outlier observations and determine the extent to which they affected the correlations between surveillance data. Pearson's correlation coefficient describing Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance over the study period was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.79). The correlation between CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance over the same period was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.89). Most of the outlier observations in both comparisons were from the 2003–04 influenza season. Exclusion of the outlier observations did not substantially improve the correlation between Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.82; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.87) or CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.86; 95%CI: 0.82, 0.90). This analysis demonstrates that while Google Flu Trends is highly correlated with rates of ILI, it has a lower correlation with surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza. Most of the outlier observations occurred during the 2003–04 influenza season that was characterized by early and intense influenza activity, which potentially altered health care seeking behavior, physician testing practices, and internet search behavior.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
120.7
作者：
Thompson, WW;Shay, DK;Fukuda, K
通讯作者：
Fukuda, K
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Izurieta, HS;Thompson, WW;Fukuda, K
通讯作者：
Fukuda, K
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Birch, CJ;Clothier, HJ;Druce, JD
通讯作者：
Druce, JD
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Zambon, MC;Stockton, JD;Fleming, DM
通讯作者：
Fleming, DM
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Brammer L;Budd A;Cox N
通讯作者：
Cox N