Future projections of seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths for Manhattan.
Future projections of seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths for Manhattan.
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1902
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发表时间：
2013-08
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Kinney, Patrick L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Tiantian;Horton, Radley M.;Kinney, Patrick L.
过去半个世纪以来，全球平均气温一直在上升，近几十年来变暖趋势有所加快。预计未来几十年将进一步变暖，但区域差异很大。这些变暖趋势可能会导致夏季更频繁，更强烈和更持久的高温时期，以及冬季普遍更高的温度。当温度达到相对于某一特定地点正常温度而言非常高的水平时，城市的每日死亡人数会显著增加。相对较冷的温度似乎也有风险。气温上升可能导致更多与高温有关的死亡率，但也可能减少与寒冷有关的死亡率，对年死亡率的净影响仍不确定。在这里，我们使用16个缩小的全球气候模型和两个排放情景，以估计当前和未来的季节性模式，在曼哈顿，纽约的温度相关的死亡率。所有32个预测都显示，与温度有关的死亡率在温暖季节增加，在寒冷季节减少，在所有情况下，与温度有关的净年死亡率都为正值。每月分析显示，最大的百分比增长可能发生在5月和9月。这些结果表明，在未来温室气体排放的一系列模型和情景中，随着季节模式的变化，与热有关的死亡率的增加可能超过与冷有关的死亡率的减少。
Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will likely result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also appear to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate current and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm season increases and cold season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.
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影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Kalkstein, LS;Greene, JS
通讯作者：
Greene, JS
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
Guest, CS;Willson, K;McMichael, AJ
通讯作者：
McMichael, AJ
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Martin, Sara Lauretta;Cakmak, Sabit;Tremblay, Neil
通讯作者：
Tremblay, Neil
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Huang, Cunrui;Barnett, Adrian G.;Tong, Shilu
通讯作者：
Tong, Shilu
DOI：
10.1097/ede.0b013e318190ee08
发表时间：
2009-03
期刊：
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Anderson BG;Bell ML
通讯作者：
Bell ML