Relationship between the population incidence of febrile convulsions in young children in Sydney, Australia and seasonal epidemics of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, 2003-2010: a time series analysis.
Relationship between the population incidence of febrile convulsions in young children in Sydney, Australia and seasonal epidemics of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, 2003-2010: a time series analysis.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-11-291
复制
发表时间：
2011-10-26
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Torvaldsen S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Polkinghorne BG;Muscatello DJ;Macintyre CR;Lawrence GL;Middleton PM;Torvaldsen S
2010年，重点关注澳大利亚儿童的发热性惊厥，特别是与流感疫苗接种有关的惊厥。热性惊厥在婴儿中相对常见，可导致住院和严重后果。我们的目的是通过常规收集的综合征监测数据，研究澳大利亚悉尼6岁以下儿童热性惊厥人群发病率与流感和呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）季节性流行之间的关系，并评估使用这些数据预测热性惊厥人群发病率增加的可行性。使用两个现成的常规收集的行政数据来源；在新南威尔士州急诊科（ED）患者管理数据库（2003年1月1日- 2010年4月30日）和新南威尔士州救护车调度数据库（2006年7月1日- 2010年4月30日）中，我们使用半参数广义加性模型（GAM）来确定ED表现的人口发生率与“惊厥”紧急救护车调度之间的关系。以及以“流感样疾病”（ILI）和“细支气管炎”（分别是流感和RSV循环的替代指标）为表现的ED的人群发病率。在研究期间，当全年龄人群每周因ILI出现ED的发生率增加1/10万时，0 ~ 6岁人群因惊厥出现ED的发生率增加6.7/10万（P < 0.0001），因惊厥被叫救护车的发生率增加3.2/10万（P < 0.0001）。相对于ILI中ED的增加，抽搐的增加发生早一周。在2009年H1N1流感大流行期间，这种关系较弱。0 ~ 3岁人群因毛细支气管炎出现ED的发生率增加了1/10万，0 ~ 6岁人群因惊厥出现ED的发生率增加了0.01/10万（P < 0.01）。我们没有发现毛细支气管炎和惊厥的救护车呼叫之间有意义和统计学意义的关联。流感季节性流行与因报告的幼儿热性惊厥而住院和救护车调度的人口发生率显著增加有关。监测综合征性ED和救护车数据有助于在人群水平上对报告的热性惊厥进行快速监测。
In 2010, intense focus was brought to bear on febrile convulsions in Australian children particularly in relation to influenza vaccination. Febrile convulsions are relatively common in infants and can lead to hospital admission and severe outcomes. We aimed to examine the relationships between the population incidence of febrile convulsions and influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonal epidemics in children less than six years of age in Sydney Australia using routinely collected syndromic surveillance data and to assess the feasibility of using this data to predict increases in population rates of febrile convulsions. Using two readily available sources of routinely collected administrative data; the NSW Emergency Department (ED) patient management database (1 January 2003 - 30 April 2010) and the Ambulance NSW dispatch database (1 July 2006 - 30 April 2010), we used semi-parametric generalized additive models (GAM) to determine the association between the population incidence rate of ED presentations and urgent ambulance dispatches for 'convulsions', and the population incidence rate of ED presentations for 'influenza-like illness' (ILI) and 'bronchiolitis' - proxy measures of influenza and RSV circulation, respectively. During the study period, when the weekly all-age population incidence of ED presentations for ILI increased by 1/100,000, the 0 to 6 year-old population incidence of ED presentations for convulsions increased by 6.7/100,000 (P < 0.0001) and that of ambulance calls for convulsions increased by 3.2/100,000 (P < 0.0001). The increase in convulsions occurred one week earlier relative to the ED increase in ILI. The relationship was weaker during the epidemic of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus. When the 0 to 3 year-old population incidence of ED presentations for bronchiolitis increased by 1/100,000, the 0 to 6 year-old population incidence of ED presentations for convulsions increased by 0.01/100,000 (P < 0.01). We did not find a meaningful and statistically significant association between bronchiolitis and ambulance calls for convulsions. Influenza seasonal epidemics are associated with a substantial and statistically significant increase in the population incidence of hospital attendances and ambulance dispatches for reported febrile convulsions in young children. Monitoring syndromic ED and ambulance data facilitates rapid surveillance of reported febrile convulsions at a population level.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Schindeler SK;Muscatello DJ;Ferson MJ;Rogers KD;Grant P;Churches T
通讯作者：
Churches T
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
M端ller-Pebody, B;Edmunds, WJ;Crowcroft, NS
通讯作者：
Crowcroft, NS
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Dixon, Gabriela A.;Moore, Hannah C.;Richmond, Peter C.
通讯作者：
Richmond, Peter C.
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Muscatello DJ;Churches T;Kaldor J;Zheng W;Chiu C;Correll P;Jorm L
通讯作者：
Jorm L
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Meury, S;Zeller, S;Heininger, U
通讯作者：
Heininger, U