Excessive heat and respiratory hospitalizations in New York State: estimating current and future public health burden related to climate change.
Excessive heat and respiratory hospitalizations in New York State: estimating current and future public health burden related to climate change.
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1104728
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发表时间：
2012-11
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Hwang SA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin S;Hsu WH;Van Zutphen AR;Saha S;Luber G;Hwang SA
背景资料：虽然许多对气候敏感的环境暴露与死亡率和发病率有关，但对气候变化造成的公共卫生负担的估计却很少。目的：我们估计了纽约州（NYS）整体、地理区域和不同人口阶层中与夏季极端高温导致的呼吸道住院相关的当前和未来过度公共卫生影响。研究方法：根据我们在纽约州的研究中确定的阈值温度和百分比风险变化，我们使用全球气候模型和各种气候情景估计了与气候变化引起的极端高温相关的近期和未来归因风险。我们估计了夏季极端高表观温度对呼吸道入院、住院天数、直接住院费用以及调整通货膨胀后住院天数的生产力损失的影响。结果如下：在纽约州，基线（1991-2004年）时归因于极端高温的估计呼吸系统疾病负担为100例住院，直接住院费用为644，069美元，每年住院616天。根据三种不同的气候情景，对2080-2099年的预测范围为每年206-607例超额住院，2600 - 7600万美元的住院费用和1，299 - 3，744天的住院时间。估计的影响因地理区域和人口统计而异。结论：我们估计，在纽约州，由于过热而导致的过度呼吸入院在2080-2099年将比1991-2004年高出2至6倍。当与其他热相关疾病和死亡率结合在一起时，与全球变暖相关的潜在公共卫生负担可能是巨大的。
Background: Although many climate-sensitive environmental exposures are related to mortality and morbidity, there is a paucity of estimates of the public health burden attributable to climate change. Objective: We estimated the excess current and future public health impacts related to respiratory hospitalizations attributable to extreme heat in summer in New York State (NYS) overall, its geographic regions, and across different demographic strata. Methods: On the basis of threshold temperature and percent risk changes identified from our study in NYS, we estimated recent and future attributable risks related to extreme heat due to climate change using the global climate model with various climate scenarios. We estimated effects of extreme high apparent temperature in summer on respiratory admissions, days hospitalized, direct hospitalization costs, and lost productivity from days hospitalized after adjusting for inflation. Results: The estimated respiratory disease burden attributable to extreme heat at baseline (1991–2004) in NYS was 100 hospital admissions, US$644,069 in direct hospitalization costs, and 616 days of hospitalization per year. Projections for 2080–2099 based on three different climate scenarios ranged from 206–607 excess hospital admissions, US$26–$76 million in hospitalization costs, and 1,299–3,744 days of hospitalization per year. Estimated impacts varied by geographic region and population demographics. Conclusions: We estimated that excess respiratory admissions in NYS due to excessive heat would be 2 to 6 times higher in 2080–2099 than in 1991–2004. When combined with other heat-associated diseases and mortality, the potential public health burden associated with global warming could be substantial.
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影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Clark, Robin T.;Murphy, James M.;Brown, Simon J.
通讯作者：
Brown, Simon J.
DOI：
10.1198/016214502753479266
发表时间：
2002-03-01
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Dominici, F;Daniels, M;Samet, JM
通讯作者：
Samet, JM
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Chinery, Robert;Walker, Randi
通讯作者：
Walker, Randi
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Dessai, S
通讯作者：
Dessai, S
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Collins, William D.;Bitz, Cecilia M.;Smith, Richard D.
通讯作者：
Smith, Richard D.